【Emini周报 04-30-2023】

S&P 500 Emini期货在四月份持续上涨，月线收于20EMA上方。下周一将是五月的第一个交易日，我们预期：下周一，市场很可能会跳空高开，在月线、周线和日线的图表上形成一个跳空缺口。通常小的跳空缺口很快会被市场回补。以空头的角度看，他们希望市场能够在20月EMA附近盘整并反转下跌。

S&P 500 Emini futures April candlestick consecutive bull bars close above the 20-month exponential moving average (EMA). Monday is the first trading day of the month. The market may gap up at the open, creating a gap on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. Small gaps usually close early. The bears hope the market will stall sideways around the 20-month exponential moving average and reverse lower.

月线图

• Emini期货四月的月线展现出一根高位收盘的阳线。The April monthly Emini candlestick was a small bull bar closing near its high.
• 上个月我们曾提到，Emini四月份的市场走势更偏向于盘整或上涨，交易员需要观察买方能否在四月份保持买盘力量。又或者说，Emini将会略微上涨，但是最终成为具有长上影线的阳线或者阴线。Last month, we said odds slightly favor sideways to up in early April and traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar in April. Or will the Emini trade slightly higher but close with a bear body or a long tail above.
• 四月，市场大部分时间都处于盘整状态，但是市场在四月的最后两个交易日从月内价格低点出现了一个强劲的反转，最终月线收盘接近高点，这极有可能套住了市场上的部分空头。The market was mostly trading sideways throughout the month, and the bulls got a strong 2-day reversal from the low of the month to close near its high in the last 2 trading days. There are potentially trapped bears.
• 在四月份，多头保持买盘力量的跟进，使月线收盘价高于20月EMA。The bulls managed to create consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average in April.
• 回顾过往市场的类似例子，每当出现这种情况（连续的阳线，收盘价高于20月EMA），市场继续上涨的可能性往往更大（至少会有略微上涨）。Looking back, whenever this has happened (consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average), it has increase probability of leading to at least slightly higher prices.
• 多头希望市场从double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBLF[/wiki])（12月22日和3月13日）开始的上涨趋势，至少能够完成 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki]) 形态，接着顺势突破。The bulls want another strong leg up from a double bottom bull flag (Dec 22 and Mar 13), completing the wedge pattern with the first 2 legs being December 13 and February 2 highs.
• 多头的下一个目标是使市场测试2月2日的高点和2022年8月的高点。The next targets for the bulls are the February 2 high and the August 2022 high.
• 多头需要保持充足的买盘使市场强劲的突破2月2日的价格高点，使交易者相信，市场将开启新一段的上涨趋势。They will need to create a strong breakout above the February 2 high with follow-through buying to convince traders that the bull trend could be resuming.
• 空头会认为：从2022年1月开始的下跌是一个broad bear channel ([wiki]BBRCH[/wiki])，而2022年8月的高点则是一个重要的低点。The bears see the move down from January 2022 as a broad bear channel, with the August 2022 high as the last major lower high.
• 如果Emini上涨，空头希望市场将在2月高点形成一个小的double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 或在2022年8月高点形成一个更大的double top bear flag ([wiki]DTBRF[/wiki]) 后反转下跌。If the Emini trades higher, they want a reversal down from a small double top with the February high or a larger double top bear flag with the August 2022 high.
• 然而，空头面对的问题在于他们自9月份以来一直没能够保持充足的卖盘力量。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create sustained follow-through selling since September 2022.
• 空头希望市场能在20月EMA附近盘整并反转下跌。The bears hope the market will stall sideways around the 20-month exponential moving average and reverse lower.
• 由于四月份的蜡烛图是一个高位收盘的阳线，因此5月份继续上涨（至少略微上涨）的可能性很大。Since April’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, odds favor May to trade at least a little higher.
• 下周一将是5月的第一个交易日，市场很可能会跳空高开，从而在月线、周线和日线图上形成一个跳空缺口。通常小的跳空缺口很快会被市场回补。Monday is the first trading day of the month. The market may gap up at the open, creating a gap on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. Small gaps usually close early.
• 月线图上看，过去12个月的月线大多重叠在一起，这意味着Emini的市场趋势很可能已经过渡到了一个价格范围在3500到4300之间的 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 阶段。The candlesticks in the last 12 months are overlapping sideways which means the Emini likely has transitioned into a trading range phase between 4300 and 3500.
• 最近6个月的月线图上，Emini在3750到4200的价格之间形成一个较小的 tight trading range ([wiki]TTR[/wiki])。The last 6 candlesticks are overlapping in a smaller tight trading range between 4200 and 3750.
• 在 trading range 内，多空双方缺乏持续性的力量控制市场并且市场出现不断反转非常常见。Poor follow-through and reversals are more likely within a trading range.
• 交易者将在区间发生突破之前采取BLSH（低买高卖）的策略。Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
• 直到区间出现强劲突破。在市场大幅突破2022年8月的高点之前，broad bear channel 的可能性仍然存在。Until the bulls can break far above the August 2022 high, the broad bear channel may still be in play.
• 目前来看，市场至少会在5月初期略微上涨。For now, May should trade at least a little higher in early of the month.
• 交易员需要观察买方能否在五月份保持买盘力量。又或者说，Emini将会略微上涨，但是最终成为具有长上影线的阳线或者阴线。Traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar or will the Emini trade higher but close with a bear body or a long tail above.
• 如果5月份的蜡烛图是一根强势大阳线，那么它有可能使市场从过往的熊市翻转为Always In Long ([wiki]AIL[/wiki]) 。If May is a big bull bar closing near its high, it could potentially flip the market to Always In Long.

• Emini蜡烛图本周周线形成了一根高位收盘并带有长下影线的阳线。This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high with a long tail below.
• 上周，我们提到：交易者将观察空头是否能够继续保持充足的卖盘力量打压市场，或者市场是否只是略微下跌就找到更多的买家力量作为支撑。Last week, we said that traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling or will the market trade slightly lower but find buyers instead.
• 本周市场曾跌破了过去三根周线的最低价，测试了20周EMA，但随后反转并收于本周的高位。This week traded below the lows of the last 3 candlestick’s, testing the 20-week exponential moving average but reversed to close near the week’s high.
• 自3月13日的低点开始，市场的上涨走势处于一条 tight bull channel ([wiki]TBLC[/wiki]) 内，这表明了上涨趋势的强劲。The move up from March 13 low is in a tight bull channel. That means strong bulls.
• 多头希望市场强劲的上涨至少能够完成 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki]) 形态 （前两波上涨分别为上涨至12月13日和2月2日的走势，而第三波上涨正是当下）。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
• 多头的下一个目标是使市场测试2月2日的高点和2022年8月的高点。The next targets for the bulls are the February 2 high and the August 2022 high.
• 周线上，多头曾形成了一段由6根阳线所组成的bull micro channel ([wiki]BLMC[/wiki]) ，这种情况下，市场首次回调位置的下方往往会有很多买家等待入场。这也是本周的情况。They had a 6-bar bull micro channel and there are often buyers below the first pullback from such a strong bull micro channel. This was the case this week.
• 如果市场将出现更深的回调，多头希望市场能对之前的高点进行二次测试。If there is a deeper pullback, the bulls want a larger second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg extreme.
• 空头希望当前的上涨只是对2月2日高点的二次测试。The bears hope that the current leg up is simply a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high.
• 空头希望市场将出现 lower high major trend reversal  ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki] ) ，或者与2月2日高点形成 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 和一个更大的wedge 形态（12月13日、2月2日和4月18日），最终使得市场现有趋势逆转。They want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and April 18).
• 如果Emini继续上涨，空头希望市场对 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 高点（2月2日）突破失败。If the Emini trades higher, they want a failed breakout above the trading range high (February 2)
• 空头面对的问题在于，自3月低点以来，他们从未在市场上表现出强势的卖盘力量。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
• 空头需要在市场上创造出强劲的阴线并保持持续性的卖盘打压市场，使交易者认为，市场将迎来深入的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
• 空方需要使市场出现一个强劲的卖出信号K线或者有一个 micro double top ([wiki]MDT[/wiki]) 形态，从而使交易者更积极的做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong sell signal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
• 由于本周周线是一个高位收盘的阳线，因此对于下周来说，它是一个不错的买入信号K线。Since this week was a bull bar closing near its high. It is a good buy signal bar for next week.
• 然而，Emini当前处于一个时间长达27周的trading range顶部，在 trading range 的顶部买入是一个风险偏高的策略。However, the Emini is trading near the top of the 27-week trading range. Buying at the top of a trading range can be risky.
• Emini很可能会在下周一跳空高开，通常小的跳空缺口通常很快就会被市场回补。但是，如果这个缺口在下周结束时仍然存在，它将是一个代表市场迎来强势上涨的迹象。The Emini may gap up on Monday. Small gaps usually close early. If the gap remains open by the end of the week, it could be a sign of strength from the bulls.
• 交易者将观察多头是否能够使市场测试并突破2月份的高点，以便于他们跟随趋势买入，亦或者市场是否在2月2日的高点附近停滞不前。Traders will see if the bulls can create a retest and breakout above the February high with follow-through buying or will the market continue to stall around the February 2 high area.
• 目前，Emini继续上涨的概率更大（至少会出现一点上涨）。For now, the odds slightly the Emini to trade at least a little higher.

译自：Brooks Trading Course