【Emini周报 05-14-2023】

标普500 Emini期货在周线图上形成了一个Emini ioi模式（[wiki]IOI[/wiki]），这意味着市场处于突破模式。然而，市场同时也处于一个长达6周的窄幅交易区间内，而Emini目前正在该区间的中部，这是一个平衡区域。

The S&P 500 Emini futures formed an an Emini ioi pattern (inside-outside-inside) on the weekly chart which means the market is in a breakout mode. However, the market is also in a 6-week tight trading range and the Emini is currently trading around the middle of it which is an area of balance.

周线 Weekly

• 本周的Emini周线形成了一个内部棒（[wiki]IB[/wiki]），带有明显的下影线。This week’s Emini candlestick was an inside bar with a prominent tail below.
• 上周我们说，除非空头能够产生可靠的卖压，否则Emini更倾向于继续横盘上涨。Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the Emini to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure.
• 外包棒后的K线有时会形成一个内外内（[wiki]IOI[/wiki]）模式，常常会有大量反复拉锯的价格行为特征，本周正是这种情况。The candlestick after an outside bar sometimes is an inside bar forming an ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern, or often, has a lot of overlapping price action. This was the case this week.
• 本周市场在一个小范围内横向波动，处于过去6周的交易区间中。This week was trading sideways within a small range around the 6-week trading range.
• 多头希望市场出现一段强劲上涨趋势，完成楔形的第二腿和第三腿，前两个腿分别是市场上涨至12月13日和2月2日的趋势，而第三个腿正在进行中。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
• 多头希望过去的6周周线线是一个位于交易区间顶部的牛旗。They hope the last 6 candlesticks are forming a bull flag near the trading range high.
• 多头希望市场从一个双底牛旗（[wiki]DBBLF[/wiki]）（4月26日和5月4日）中反转并强势突破2月2日的高点，然后基于过去5个月交易区间走出一个等距测量（[wiki]MM[/wiki]）上涨至2022年3月高点区域。They want a reversal up from a double bottom bull flag (Apr 26 and May 4) and a breakout far above February 2 high followed by a measured move up using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
• 多头的下一个目标是2月2日的高点和2022年8月的高点。The next targets for the bulls are the February 2 high and the August 2022 high.
• 空头希望市场从2月2日的双顶以及更大的楔形图（12月13日、2月2日、5月1日）开始反转。The bears want a reversal down from a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, May 1).
• 如果Emini继续上涨，他们希望过去6周形成的交易区间是此次上涨行情的最终旗形，随后市场反转回来重新进入交易区间。If the Emini trades higher, they hope that the 6-week trading range is the final flag of the move up and want a reversal back into the trading range.
• 空头的问题在于自3月低点以来他们并未显现出强劲的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
• 他们需要使市场出现几个强劲的空头K线以及强劲的卖压跟随（[wiki]FT[/wiki]）来向交易者证明市场可能会出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
• 至少，空头需要使市场一个强劲的卖出信号K线才会让交易者愿意更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong sell signal bar before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
• 到目前为止，Emini的回调走势保持横盘，空头尚未变得强势。So far, the pullback in the Emini has gone sideways. The bears are not yet strong.
• 空头需要形成连续的光脚阴线（[wiki]BRBCL[/wiki]）以增加进一步下跌的可能性。The bears need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of lower prices.
• Emini形成了一个内外内（ioi）模式，这是一个突破模式。多头希望突破上方，而空头希望突破本周的价格区间下方。Emini ioi pattern formed (inside-outside-inside), which is a breakout mode pattern. The bulls want a breakout above while the bears want a breakout below this week’s range.
• 由于本周是一根带有明显下影线的阴线，因此它只能算作是一个较弱的卖出信号K线。Because this week is a small bear bar with a prominent tail below, it is a weaker sell signal bar.
• ioi（内部-外部-内部）模式的首次突破有50%的可能性失败。The first breakout from an ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern can fail 50% of the time.
• Emini正处于一个为期6周的窄幅交易区间的中部，这是一个平衡区域。在交易区间内，市场缺乏跟随性的力量和不断反转是很常见的事情。The Emini is trading near the middle of a 6-week tight trading range. It is an area of balance. Poor follow-through and reversals are common within a trading range.
• 目前，市场仍倾向横盘并上涨，除非空头能够创造有力的卖压（连续的大光脚阴线）。For now, odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure (consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows).

日线 Daily

译自：Brooks Trading Course