本周，标普500 Emini期货突破了2月2日的高点。在下周，多头需要保持力量，增加市场继续上涨的可能性，而空头则希望市场的突破将演变为假突破。如果Emini继续上涨，空头希望市场将从去年8月高点处形成 double top bear flag （[wiki]DTBRF[/wiki]），从而反转。
The S&P 500 Emini futures breakout above the February 2 high this week. The bulls will need to create follow-through buying next week to increase the odds of higher prices. The bears want a failed breakout above the February 2 high. If the Emini trades higher, they want a reversal down from a double top bear flag with the August high.
月线 Monthly
- 五月份的Emini月线是一个外包阳线，呈十字星，收盘在其区间的上半部分。The May monthly Emini candlestick was an outside bull doji closing in the upper half of its range.
- 上个月，我们提到过交易员将观察多头是否能够保持买盘力量，又或者说，Emini将会略微上涨，但是最终成为具有长上影线的阳线或者阴线。 Last month, we said that traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar or will the Emini trade higher but close with a bear body or a long tail above.
- 如果五月份月线是一个高位收盘的大阳线，它有可能将市场转变为持续看多状态。 If May is a big bull bar closing near its high, it could potentially flip the market to Always In Long.
- 五月份月线收盘在区间的上半部分，表现了买盘力量跟随。 May closed in the upper half of its range and was a follow-through bar.
- 多头保持买盘力量的跟进，使月线收盘价高于20月EMA。The bulls managed to create consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average.
- 回顾过往市场的类似例子，每当出现这种情况（连续的阳线，收盘价高于20月EMA），市场继续上涨的可能性往往更大（至少会有略微上涨）。Looking back, whenever this has happened (consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average), it has often led to at least slightly higher prices.
- 目前为止，市场在6月初继续上涨。 So far, the market has continued higher in early June.
- 自三月以来的上涨处于一个tight bull channel（[wiki]TBLCH[/wiki]）。The move up since March is also in a tight bull channel.
- 多头希望市场从double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBLF[/wiki])（12月22日和3月13日）开始的上涨趋势，至少能够完成 wedge [wiki](W[/wiki]) 形态。而第三波上涨正是当下。The bulls want another strong leg up from a double bottom bull flag (Dec 22 and Mar 13), completing the wedge pattern with the first 2 legs being December 13 and February 2 highs. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 多头的下一个目标是使市场测试2022年8月的高点。TThe next target for the bulls is the August 2022 high.
- 多头需要保持充足的买盘使市场强劲的突破2月2日的价格高点，使交易者相信，市场将开启新一段的上涨趋势。They will need to create a strong breakout above the February 2 high with follow-through buying to convince traders that the bull trend could be resuming.
- 空头会认为：从2022年1月开始的下跌是一个broad bear channel (BBRCH)，而2022年8月的高点则是一个重要的阻力。The bears see the move down from January 2022 as a broad bear channel, with the August 2022 high as the last major lower high.
- 空头希望2月份的高点突破失败。They want a failed breakout above the February high.
- 如果Emini继续上涨，空头希望市场从8月高点形成 double top bear flag （[wiki]DBBRF[/wiki]），反转下跌。If the Emini trades higher, they want a reversal down from a double top bear flag with the August high.
- 然而，空头面对的问题在于他们自9月份以来一直没能够保持充足的卖盘力量。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create sustained follow-through selling since September 2022.
- 空头需要创造更强的卖压，才能使交易员相信他们仍然掌控着市场。They will need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to convince traders that they are still in control.
- 由于五月份的月线是一个收盘在上半部分的十字阳线，对于六月份而言，它是一个较弱的买入信号。Since May’s candlestick was a bull doji closing in its upper half, it is a weaker buy signal bar for June.
- 然而，由于自三月以来的上涨处于一个 tight bull channel（[wiki]TBLCH[/wiki]），市场在六月初更有可能处于横盘上涨的阶段。However, because the move up since March is in a tight bull channel, odds slightly favor the market to be in the sideways to up phase in the first part of June.
- 交易员需要观察买方能否在六月份保持买盘力量。又或者说，Emini将会略微上涨，但是最终成为具有长上影线的阳线或者阴线。Traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar or will the Emini trade higher but close with a bear body or a long tail above.
- 如果六月份月线是一个收盘于接近高位并且超过了8月份的高点的大阳线，这将增加市场重新测试历史高位的可能性。If June is a big bull bar closing near its high and above August’s high, it will increase the odds of a retest near the all-time high.
周线 Weekly
- 本周Emini的周线是个高脚阳线。This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull bar closing near its high with a long tail below.
- 上周我们提到过，市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，除非空头能够制造出可观的卖压（强劲的空头信号K线并有后续的卖盘）。Last week, we said that odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure.
- 本周的价格远远突破了2月份的高点。This week broke far above the February high.
- 多头希望市场能够进一步上涨，完成 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）的形态，其中前两波上涨阶段分别是12月13日和2月2日。而第三波上涨正是当下。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 多头希望最近6周的 tight trading range （[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）是一个在 trading range （[wiki]TR[/wiki]）高点附近的 bull flag（[wiki]BLF[/wiki]）。They hope that the recent 6-week tight trading range formed a bull flag around the trading range high.
- 多头希望市场从一个 double bottom bull flag（[wiki]DBBLF[/wiki]）（5月4日和5月24日）中迎来新的上涨阶段，并突破远远高于2月2日的高点，然后他们将以过去5个月 trading range 的高度等距看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。They want another leg up from a double bottom bull flag (May 4 and May 24) and a breakout far above February 2 high followed by a measured move up using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
- 多头的下一个目标是2022年8月的高点。The next target for the bulls is the August 2022 high.
- 多头需要在本周突破2月2日的高点，并继续保持力量。The bulls need to create follow-through buying following this week’s close above the February 2 high.
- 空头希望市场从wedge（12月13日、2月2日和6月2日）和8月高点形成double top（[wiki]DT[/wiki]）中反转下跌。The bears want a reversal down from a wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and June 2) and a double top with the August high.
- 空头希望这6周的 tight trading range是上涨趋势中的 final flag （[wiki]FF[/wiki]），并希望市场反转回到之前 trading range的中间。They hope that the 6-week tight trading range is the final flag of the move up and want a reversal back into the middle of the 6-month trading range.
- 然而，空头面对的问题在于自3月低点以来他们一直没有创造出可观的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
- 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，才能让交易者相信市场将出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
- 空头需要市场出现强烈的卖出信号K线才会更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 因为本周的周线是一个高位收盘的大阳线，所以对于下周而言，它是一个买入信号，而不是一个强烈的卖出信号。Since this week was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week. It is not a strong sell signal bar.
- 市场可能会在下周一跳空高开，但是通常小的跳空缺口往往很快会被填补。The market may gap up on Monday. Small gaps usually close early.
- 目前，市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，除非空头能够制造出可观的卖压（强劲的空头信号K线并有后续的卖盘）。For now, odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure (consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows).
- 交易员将观察多头是否能够保持买盘力量的跟进，又或者说，Emini将会略微上涨，但是最终成为具有长上影线的阳线或者阴线。Traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying or will the Emini trade slightly higher but close with a long tail above or a bear body.
你认为这次的突破会不会变成假突破？