标普500 Emini期货本周突破了趋势通道线。多头希望市场能够强势突破8月高点，并达到2022年3月高点附近的等距测量目标。空头则希望市场突破8月高点失败，并看到趋势通道线的假突破。
The S&P 500 Emini futures traded higher and formed a trend channel line overshoot. The bulls want a strong breakout above the August high and a measured move up to around the March 2022 high area. The bears want a failed breakout above the August high and at least a pullback following the trend channel line overshoot.
周线 Weekly
- 本周的标普500 Emini期货周线是一个大阳线，收盘于区间的上半部分，并有明显的上影线。This week’s Emini candlestick was a big bull bar closing in the upper half with a prominent tail above.
- 上周我们说到，尽管市场上涨的可能性高于下跌的可能性，但任何时刻都将会出现微小的回调。Last week, we said that while the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase, a minor pullback can begin at any moment.
- 本周市场超越了8月的高点，但未能收于其上方。This week traded above the August high but did not close above it.
- 市场获得了一个强劲的上涨，形成了wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]），其中前两个腿分别是12月13日和2月2日。The bulls got a strong leg up creating the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2.
- 上涨趋势处于一个 tight bull channel（[wiki]TBLCH[/wiki]）和一个由4根阳线组成的 microchannel（[wiki]MC[/wiki]），这意味着多头买压强劲。The move up is in a tight bull channel and a 4-bar bull microchannel. That means strong bulls.
- 多头希望市场能够远远突破8月高点，并以6个月 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）的等距测量看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。They want a breakout far above the August high followed by a measured move using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
- 他们需要制造出强劲买压，将价位推到远远超过于8月高点。They will need to create follow-through buying trading far above the August high.
- 如果出现回调，他们希望市场至少会出现第二个小幅度的横盘至上涨，重新测试当前涨势的高点（6月16日）。If there is a pullback, they want at least a small second leg sideways to up retesting the current leg extreme (June 16).
- 空头希望市场从 wedge（12月13日、2月2日和6月16日）和与8月高点所形成的 double top（[wiki]DT[/wiki]）反转下跌。The bears want a reversal down from a wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 16) and a double top with the August high.
- 他们希望看到市场突破8月高点失败。如果形成假突破，通常会在突破后的5根K线内发生。They hope to get a failed breakout above the August high. If there is a failed breakout, it would usually occur within 5 bars after the breakout.
- 他们希望市场在突破趋势通道线后至少出现小幅回调。They want at least a small pullback from the trend channel line overshoot.
- 空头面对的问题在于自3月低点以来他们一直没有创造出可观的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
- 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，才能让交易者相信市场将出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
- 空头需要市场出现强劲的卖出信号K线才会更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 因为本周的周线是一个阳线并收盘于区间的上半部分，所以对于下周而言，它是一个买入信号，尽管是个稍弱的信号（因为有上影线），而不是一个强烈的卖出信号。Since this week was a bull bar closing in its upper half, it is a buy signal bar for next week, albeit weaker because of the prominent tail above. It is not a strong sell signal bar.
- 尽管现在市场上涨的可能性高于下跌的可能性，但任何时刻都将会出现微小的回调。While the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase, a minor pullback can begin at any moment.
- 交易员将观察多头是否能够保持买盘力量的跟进，又或者说，Emini将会在目前的价位停滞并开始进入回调阶段。Traders will see if the bulls can continue creating consecutive bull bars or will the Emini stall around the August high and begin the pullback phase.
日线 Daily
- 本周标普500 Emini期货保持上涨。周五高开但最终反转，并以一个接近低点的阴线收盘。The Emini traded higher for the week. Friday opened higher but reversed to close as a bear bar near its low.
- 之前我们提到过，市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，除非空头能够制造出可观的卖压。Previously, we said that the odds continue to slightly favor sideways to up. This can change if the bears manage to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
- 本周市场继续上涨并突破了趋势通道线。This week continued the move up and broke above the trend channel line.
- 多头希望市场以过去6个月 trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）的高度等距看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。The bulls want a measured move up using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them near the March 2022 high.
- 多头需要市场突破远超8月份的高点并保持买盘跟随，以增加达到等距测量目标的可能性。They will need to break far above the August high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of reaching the measured move target.
- 自5月24日低点以来的上涨走势处于一个 tight bull channel（[wiki]TBLCH[/wiki]），这意味着多头买压强劲。The move up since May 24 low is in a tight bull channel which means strong bulls.
- 然而，上涨行情略显高潮，并呈现出 parabolic wedge（[wiki]PW[/wiki]）（5月30日、6月5日和6月16日）的形态。However, the move up is also slightly climactic and has the shape of a parabolic wedge (May 30, Jun 5, and Jun 16).
- 周四在趋势后期市场出现的大阳线可能是高潮行情的迹象。Thursday’s big bull bar late in a trend could be a sign of climactic price action.
- 市场的小幅回调随时可能开始。如果出现回调，合理的目标将是20日指数移动平均线区域。A minor pullback can begin at any moment. If there is a pullback, a reasonable target would be the 20-day exponential moving average area.
- 交易者期望会另出现一小段回调，重新测试当前趋势的高点（6月16日）。Traders will still expect at least a small leg to retest the current leg extreme high (Jun 16).
- 空头尚未能够形成持续性的卖盘力量。The bears have not yet been able to create credible selling pressure.
- 他们认为从2022年10月开始的上涨只是在一个 broad bear channel（[wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]）中的一个大wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和6月9日）。They see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 16) within a broad bear channel.
- 他们越未能从2022年1月至10月的抛售中恢复下跌趋势（在跌势中的K线越多），先前的下跌对当前价格涨势的影响就越弱。The longer they fail to create the trend resumption lower (the more candlesticks in between) from the selloff from January – October 2022 to now, the less relevant the effects of the prior move down would have on the current price action.
- 空头希望看到市场突破8月高点失败，并从趋势通道线超调处出现反转。The bears want a failed breakout above the August high and a reversal from a trend channel line overshoot.
- 他们需要在下周早些时候创造出可观的卖盘，以增加更深度回调的可能性。They will need to create follow-through selling early next week to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
- 由于市场缺乏连续的强势阴线和跟进卖盘，其仍然更倾向上涨上涨。Because of the lack of strong bear bars with follow-through selling, odds continue to slightly favor sideways to up.
- 然而，上涨行情也显高潮，小幅回调随时可能开始。However, the move up is also climactic and a minor pullback can begin at any moment.
- 周一因为纪念六月节日国家独立日而闭市。The market is closed on Monday for Juneteenth National Independence Day.
趋势通道线超调通常在5根K线内出现回调。