标普500 Emini期货上周形成了一个小幅回调，市场在上周突破了趋势通道线。多头希望在这次的回调以后，至少有一个小幅的第二次横盘至上涨，以重新测试当前上涨的最高价位（6月16日）。空头则希望市场突破失败，他们希望在这次的趋势通道线突破之后，会至少有一个小幅回调。
The S&P 500 Emini futures formed a minor pullback on the weekly chart following the trend channel line overshoot. The bulls want at least a small second leg sideways to up retesting the current leg extreme (June 16) after the current pullback. The bears want a failed breakout above the August high. They want at least a small pullback from the trend channel line overshoot.
Weekly 周线
- 本周的Emini是一根收盘接近低点的阴线。This week’s Emini candlestick was an inside bear bar closing near its low.
- 上周我们说到，尽管市场上涨的可能性高于下跌的可能性，但任何时刻都将会出现微小的回调。Last week, we said that while the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase, a minor pullback can begin at any moment.
- 市场获得了一个强劲的上涨，形成了 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]），其中前两个腿分别是12月13日和2月2日。The bulls got a strong leg up creating the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2.
- 自5月24日低点以来的上涨趋势处于一个由4根阳线组成的 microchannel（[wiki]MC[/wiki]）。这意味着多头实力强劲。The move up since May 24 low is in a 5-bar bull microchannel. That means strong bulls.
- 多头希望市场能够远远突破8月高点，并以6个月 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）的等距测量看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。They want a breakout far above the August high followed by a measured move using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
- 多头需要制造出强劲买压，将价位推到远远超过于8月高点，以提高达到等距测量目标的可能性。They will need to create follow-through buying trading far above the August high to increase the odds of reaching the measured move.
- 如果市场出现回调，多头希望市场至少会出现第二个小幅度的横盘至上涨，重新测试当前涨势的高点（6月16日）。If there is a pullback, they want at least a small second leg sideways to up retesting the current leg extreme (June 16).
- 空头希望市场从 wedge（12月13日、2月2日和6月16日）和与8月高点所形成的 double top（[wiki]DT[/wiki]）反转下跌。The bears want a reversal down from a wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 16) and a double top with the August high.
- 他们希望看到市场突破8月高点失败。如果形成假突破，通常会在突破后的5根K线内发生。They hope to get a failed breakout above the August high. If there is a failed breakout, it would usually occur within 5 bars after the breakout.
- 他们希望市场在突破趋势通道线后至少出现小幅回调。这回调可能已经正在进行中。They want at least a small pullback from the trend channel line overshoot. The pullback may have started this week.
- 空头面对的问题在于自3月低点以来他们一直没有创造出可观的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure with follow-through selling since the March low.
- 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，才能让交易者相信市场将出现更深的回调。They will need to create consecutive strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
- 因为本周的周线是一个内包阴线，Emini正处于突破模式。由于这是一个接近低点收盘的阴线，市场稍微偏向于向下突破。Since this week was an inside bear bar, the Emini is in breakout mode. Because it is a bear bar closing near its low, odds slightly favor a breakout below it.
- 第一次从内包线突破成功率只有50%。The first breakout from an inside bar can fail 50% of the time.
- 尽管现在市场上涨的可能性高于下跌的可能性，但任何时刻都将会出现微小的回调。这回调可能已经正在进行中。While the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase, a minor pullback can begin at any moment. It may have already begun.
- 交易员将观察空头是否能够保持卖盘力量的跟进或这回调较为弱（出现重叠的K线、十字星和阳线）。Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling or will the pullback be weak (with overlapping bars, doji(s), and bull bars).
- 如果回调较为弱，重新测试当前上涨的最高价位（6月16日）的可能性将增加。If the pullback is weak, the odds of a second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg extreme (Jun 16) will increase.
Daily 日线
- Emini在星期二开低，但收盘为十字星。市场在本周的其余时间继续横盘至下跌中交易。The Emini gap lower on Tuesday but closed as a doji bar. The market continued to trade sideways to down for the rest of the week.
- 上周我们提到尽管市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，但这波的上涨是一段高潮，所以小幅回调可能随时开始。Last week, we said that while the odds continue to slightly favor sideways to up, the move up is also climactic and a minor pullback can begin at any moment.
- 多头希望市场以过去6个月 trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）的高度等距看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。The bulls want a measured move up using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them near the March 2022 high.
- 多头需要市场突破远超8月份的高点并保持买盘力量，以增加达到等距测量目标的可能性。They will need to break far above the August high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of reaching the measured move target.
- 自5月24日低点以来的上涨走势处于一个 tight bull channel（[wiki]TBLCH[/wiki]），这意味着多头买压强劲。The move up since May 24 low is in a tight bull channel which means strong bulls.
- 然而，上涨行情略显高潮，并呈现出 parabolic wedge（[wiki]PW[/wiki]）（5月30日、6月5日和6月16日）的形态。However, it is also slightly climactic and has the shape of a parabolic wedge (May 30, Jun 5, and Jun 16).
- 市场的小幅回调随时可能开始。而这回调可能已经正在进行中。A minor pullback to the 20-day exponential moving average area can begin at any moment. It likely has begun.
- 多头希望20日EMA可以在回调中成为支撑点。The bulls want the 20-day exponential moving average to act as support.
- 交易者期望会另出现一小段回调，重新测试当前趋势的高点（6月16日）。Traders will still expect at least a small leg sideways to up to retest the current leg extreme high (Jun 16) after the pullback.
- 空头尚未能够形成持续性的卖盘力量。The bears have not yet been able to create credible selling pressure.
- 他们认为从2022年10月开始的上涨只是在一个 broad bear channel（BBRCH）中的一个大wedge（W）（12月13日、2月2日和6月9日）。They see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 16) within a broad bear channel.
- 他们越未能从2022年1月至10月的抛售中恢复下跌趋势（在跌势中的K线越多），先前的下跌对当前价格涨势的影响就越弱。The longer they fail to create the trend resumption lower (the more candlesticks in between) from the selloff from January – October 2022 to now, the less relevant the effects of the prior move down would have on the current price action.
- 空头希望看到市场突破8月高点失败，并从趋势通道线超调处出现反转。The bears want a failed breakout above the August high and a reversal from a trend channel line overshoot.
- 尽管本周下跌，但下跌的K线包括十字星和阳线，这表明空头尚未强势。While this week traded lower, the move down consist of doji(s) and bull bars, which indicates that the bears are not yet strong.
- 他们需要保持卖盘力量的跟进，收盘接近低点，远低于20日指数移动平均线的位置，以增加出现更深回调的可能性。They will need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, trading far below the 20-day exponential moving average to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
- 目前，市场处于处于小幅回调阶段，而在当前回调之后可能会出现第二段上涨。For now, odds slightly favor the Emini to still be in the minor pullback phase and for a second leg sideways to up after the current pullback.