S&P 500 Emini期货从3月13日的低点至今形成了一段强劲的上涨趋势，是一段由5根K线组成的 bull micro channel ([wiki]BLMC[/wiki])，由此我们可以看出多头力量非常强劲。通常情况下，一段强劲的 bull micro channel 的第一个回调位置下方会有很多买家等待入场。而在此时，空头则希望市场能够从 wedge (W) 顶部反转并出现 lower high major trend reversal ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki]) ，空头预期这段强劲的上涨趋势只是对2月2日市场价格高点的回测。但是，就当下来说，空头需要看到市场出现一个强劲的反转K线或 micro double top ([wiki]MDT[/wiki])，他们才会愿意以更积极的方式做空。
The S&P 500 Emini futures formed a strong bull leg up from the March 13 low. The bulls have a 5-bar bull micro channel which means strong bulls. Often, there are buyers below the first pullback from such a strong bull micro channel. The bears want a reversal down from a wedge top and a lower high major trend reversal. They hope that the strong move up is simply a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high. They would need to have a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
周线图
- 本周的Emini周线是一根具有明显上影线的阳线。This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull bar with a prominent tail above.
- 上周，我们提到过，Emini继续上涨的可能性依然较高。Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the Emini to still be in the bull leg phase.
- 在本周，市场价格突破了上周的高点并收盘在上周高点附近。This week broke above last week’s high and closed slightly above it.
- 市场价格在去年12月22日和今年3月13日形成了 double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBF[/wiki]) 并得到了反转上涨。The bulls got a reversal up from a double bottom bull flag with the December low (Dec 22 and Mar 13).
- 多头希望市场能够突破今年2月份的价格高点以证明市场结束了长久以来的熊市。By breaking above the December high (in February), they hope the bear trend of successively lower highs and lower lows has ended.
- 如果市场能够大幅突破去年12月份和8月份的高点，那将更具说服力。More likely, they will need to break far above the December and August highs to signal the end of the selloff.
- 多头希望市场目前的上涨趋势能够完成 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki]) 的形态，第一和第二条腿分别是12月13日和2月2日，而第三波上涨正是当下。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 多头希望市场至少能够测试2月份的高点。At the very least they want a retest of February high.
- 目前市场已经形成了一段由5根K线组成的 bull micro channel ([wiki]BLMC[/wiki])，由此我们可以看出多头力量非常强劲。通常情况下，一段强劲的 bull micro channel 的第一个回调位置下方会有很多买家等待入场。The bulls currently have a 5-bar bull micro channel. That means strong bulls. There may be buyers below the first pullback below such a strong bull micro channel.
- 过去，市场趋势在二月份的 higher high major trend reversal ([wiki]HHMTR[/wiki]) 反转下跌。The bears got a reversal down from a higher high major trend reversal in February.
- 然后，市场又在3月6日的lower high major trend reversal ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki]) 中横盘转至下跌。They then got a second leg sideways to down from a lower high major trend reversal (Mar 6).
- 然而，空头无法在三月份的后续行情中继续保持充足的力量打压市场。However, they were not able to create follow-through selling in March.
- 空头希望市场当前的回调仅仅是对2月2日价格高点的测试。The bears hope that the current pullback is simply a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high.
- 他们希望看到一个从 lower high major trend reversal 或一个与二月2日高点形成 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 和一个更大的 wedge（12月13日、2月2日和4月14日）。They want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2 and April 14).
- 在目前市场如此强劲的上升趋势下，空头需要看到市场出现一个强劲的反转K线或 micro double top ([wiki]MDT[/wiki])，他们才会愿意以更积极的方式做空。Because of the strong move-up, the bears will need a strong sell signal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 本周周线是一个收盘于中位偏上的阳线，也是下周的买入信号K线。Since this week was a bull bar closing in the upper half, it is a buy signal bar for next week.
- 但是，本周周线处于一段长达25周的 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 的顶部附近，在trading range的顶部买入不是一个理想的策略。However, it is appearing near the top of the 25-week trading range. Buying at the top of a trading range is not an ideal setup.
- 交易者依然应该考虑：在市场强势突破2月份的高点之前，进行低买高卖的策略。Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a strong breakout above the February high with follow-through buying.
- 尽管当前市场上涨趋势很强劲，但是它很可能仅仅是对 trading range 顶部的测试。As strong as the current move up is, it could simply be a buy vacuum retest of the trading range.
- 目前，交易者将观察买方是否能够创造出强有力K线突破2月2日的高点，或者市场是否在未来几周内形成一个良好的卖出信号K线。For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest and breakout above February 2 high or will the bears form a decent sell signal bar within the next few weeks.
- 本周Emini的行情由横盘转至上涨。The Emini traded sideways to up for the week.
- 上周，我们提到过，Emini继续上涨的可能性依然较高，市场有可能测试2月份的高点。Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the Emini to trade at least a little higher, possibly retesting the February high.
- 本周市场虽然略微上涨，但是还没有达到2月份的高点。This week traded slightly higher but has not yet reached the February high.
- 当前市场的上涨趋势(由3月13日的低点至今)，依然处于一个 tight bull channel ([wiki]TBLC[/wiki]) 之内，表明多头力量非常强劲。The current leg up from March 13 low is in a tight bull channel, which means persistent bulls.
- 本周市场走势在一开始出现了一段小的回调，然后由第二波横盘转至上涨。但是，我们要注意：在上涨过程中出现了很多重叠的K线，这表明了动能的减弱。This week formed the second leg sideway to up after a small pullback. However, the move-up has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which means a loss of momentum.
- 多头希望市场能重新测试2月份的高点，与去年12月1日和今年2月2日的两波上涨完成 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki]) 的形态，随后市场向上突破并形成一段新的上涨趋势，The bulls want a retest of the February high followed by a breakout and another big leg up, completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 1 and February 2.
- 市场在今年2月份时突破了去年12月份的高点，多头希望这代表长久以来的熊市已经结束，并且市场已经转为trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 或牛市。By trading above the December high (in February), the bulls hope that the bear trend has ended, and the market has either transitioned into a trading range or a bull trend.
- 如果市场能够大幅突破去年12月份和8月份的高点，交易者将彻底相信：自2022年1月开始的熊市已经结束的。More likely, the bulls will need to break far above the December and August highs, to convince traders that the bear trend from January 2022 has ended.
- 空头希望：自2022年10月以来的上涨只是在一个 broad bear channel ([wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]) 中形成了一个更大的double top bear flag ([wiki]DTBF[/wiki])（分别在8月16日和2月2日形成） 。The bears see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a larger double top bear flag (Aug 16 and Feb 2) within a broad bear channel.
- 以空头的角度来看：2022年8月份的高点是最重要的阻力位置，只要其尚未被突破，Emini仍处于熊市当中。They determined that the August high is the last major lower high, therefore, believe that the Emini is still in a bear trend.
- 空头希望市场出现 lower high major trend reversal ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki]) 或在double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki])（2月2日）中反转，测试去年10月的低点。They want a retest of the October low from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top (Feb 2).
- 空头预期市场将出现一个wedge top ([wiki]WT[/wiki]) （由12月13日、2月2日形成两腿，第三腿当下正在进行）。与此同时，市场当前的上涨趋势中也形成了一个较小的 wedge（3月22日、4月4日和4月14日）。They also see a larger wedge top forming (Dec 1, Feb 2 and April 14) with a smaller wedge in the current leg up (Mar 22, Apr 4, and Apr 14).
- 然而，空头面对的问题在于自3月13日低点以来的买盘压力较强，阳线多数都是收盘于高位，而阴线（卖方）的力量则明显不足。The problem with the bear’s case is that the buying pressure since March 13 low is stronger with bull bars closing near their highs and bear bars having little follow-through.
- 因此，空头需要推动市场未来形成连续的阴线，并收于低位，使卖盘大于买盘，才能提高市场走势下跌的可能性。They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of lower prices.
- 虽然市场当前的上涨趋势很强，但是它可能只是对2月2日高点的二次测试。While the move up is strong, it could simply be a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high.
- 当前，市场的上涨趋势中出现了多个不同的 wedge（上升楔形） ，其增加了市场出现回调的概率，而这个回调随时可能开始。The large wedge and smaller wedge in the current leg up increase the odds that we may see a pullback which may begin at any moment.
- 如果市场开始回调，交易者将观察其能否形成连续的阴线，并收于低位。If the pullback begins, traders will see if the bears can create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
- 如上述所说，如果空头的力量能够推动市场不断下跌，形成多数低位收盘的阴线，就提高了市场目前的 trading range（范围在3750到4200之内，长达25周） 内出现下跌趋势的概率。If they do, it increases the odds of the bear leg beginning within the 25-week trading range around 3750 and 4200.
- 交易者将在区间突破之前采取BLSH（低买高卖）的策略。Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
中英文双语对照，很不错！