S&P 500 Emini期货在周线图上形成了一段由6根阳线所组成的bull micro channel ([wiki]BLMC[/wiki])，我们可以看出上涨趋势非常强劲。未来的市场预期中，多头希望市场价格能够强劲地突破2月2日的高点，完成wedge (W)的形态的同时突破它。根据市场图表分析，Wedge的第一和第二条腿分别是市场上涨至12月13日和2月2日价格高点的趋势。而空头的预期是：当前强劲的上涨趋势只是对2月2日市场价格高点的回测，市场将从 lower high major trend reversal ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki]) 得到趋势逆转，或者与2月2日高点形成 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 和一个更大的wedge (W) 形态（12月13日、2月2日和4月18日）。
The S&P 500 Emini futures formed a 6-bar bull micro channel on the weekly chart. That means strong bulls. The bulls want a strong breakout above February 2 high completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The bears hope that the current leg up is simply a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high. They want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and April 18).
周线图
- 本周的Emini蜡烛图虽然突破了上周高点，但是却形成了一个小的十字星阴线。This week’s Emini candlestick traded above last week’s high but closed as a small bear doji.
- 上周我们提到，交易者将会观察市场是否能够在接下来的几周内继续保持强劲的上涨，并突破2月2日的高点。否则，空头的后续力量很可能会使市场在接下来的几周内形成一个良好的卖出信号K线。Last week, we said that traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest and breakout above February 2 high or will the bears form a decent sell signal bar within the next few weeks.
- 空头希望市场当前的上涨趋势仅仅是对2月2日价格高点的测试。The bears hope that the current leg up is simply a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high.
- 他们希望看到一个从 lower high major trend reversal 或一个与二月2日高点形成 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 和一个更大的 wedge（12月13日、2月2日和4月14日）。They want a reversal down from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and April 18).
- 在目前市场如此强劲的上升趋势下，空头需要看到市场出现一个强劲的反转K线或 micro double top ([wiki]MDT[/wiki])，他们才会愿意以更积极的方式做空。Because of the strong move up, the bears will need a strong sell signal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 我们可以看到，过去两条K线的高点形成了一个 micro double top（4月14日和4月18日），与此同时，空头还看到了一个 micro wedge ([wiki]MW[/wiki])（4月4日、4月14日和4月18日）。The highs of the last 2 candlesticks formed a micro double top (Apr 14 and Apr 18). The bears also have a micro wedge (Apr 4, Apr 14, and Apr 18).
- 空头需要在下周继续保持充足的卖盘力量打压市场，从而提升市场价格下跌的可能性。The bears will need to create follow-through selling next week to increase the odds of the start of the bear leg.
- 市场在12月低点（12月22日和3月13日）形成了一个 double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBLF[/wiki])。The bulls got a reversal up from a double bottom bull flag with the December low (Dec 22 and Mar 13).
- 多头希望市场目前的上涨趋势能够完成 wedge 的形态，第一和第二条腿分别是市场上涨至12月13日和2月2日价格高点的趋势，而第三波上涨正是当下。They want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 多头希望市场至少能够测试2月份的高点。At the very least they want a retest of February high.
- 目前市场形成了一段由6根阳线所组成的bull micro channel ([wiki]BLMC[/wiki])，这表明了强劲的上涨趋势。The bulls currently have a 6-bar bull micro channel and the move up is in a tight bull channel. That means strong bulls.
- 通常情况下，一段强劲的 bull micro channel 的第一个回调位置下方会有很多买家等待入场。Often, there are buyers below the first pullback from such a strong bull micro channel.
- 如果市场将出现更深的回调，买方希望市场会有一次小幅度的二次上涨，至少重新测试4月18日的高点。If there is a pullback, the bulls want at least a small second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg high (April 18).
- 本周周线形成了一个十字阴线，收盘于K线的中部以下，不是一个理想的卖出信号。This week was a bear doji and closed below the middle of the bar. It is a weak sell signal bar.
- 交易者将会观察空头是否能够在下周继续保持充足的卖盘力量打压市场，或者市场是否只是略微下跌就找到更多的买家力量作为支撑。Traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling next week or will the market trade slightly lower but find buyers instead.
- Emini目前在长达26周的 trading range (TR) 顶部附近。在trading range 顶部买入并不是一个理想的交易策略。The Emini is trading near the top of the 26-week trading range. Buying at the top of a trading range is not an ideal setup.
- 交易者仍应该考虑：在市场强势突破2月份的高点之前，采取低买高卖的策略。Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a strong breakout above the February high with follow-through buying.
- 尽管当前市场上涨趋势很强劲，但是它很可能仅仅是对 trading range 顶部的测试，然后继续推动市场不断下跌。As strong as the current move up is, it could simply be a buy vacuum retest of the trading range high to be followed by a bear leg thereafter.
日线图
- 本周二，Emini跳空高开，突破了上周的高点，但随后反转下跌。市场在本周接下来的时间内横盘并转至下跌。The Emini gap above last week’s high on Tuesday but closed as a bear bar. The market then traded sideways to down for the rest of the week.
- 上周我们提到，市场的上涨趋势中出现了多个不同的 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]） ，其增加了市场出现回调的概率，而这个回调随时可能开。始Last week, we said that the large wedge and smaller wedge in the current leg up increase the odds that we may see a pullback which may begin at any moment.
- 目前，市场的回调还比较弱，市场尚未能够形成连续的具有强劲动能的阴线。The pullback so far is weak, and the bears have not yet been able to create strong consecutive bear bars.
- 当前市场的上涨趋势(由3月13日的低点至今)，依然处于一个 tight bull channel ([wiki]TBLC[/wiki]) 之内，表明多头力量非常强劲。The current leg up from March 13 low is in a tight bull channel, which means persistent bulls.
- 从4月6日开始的上涨趋势中K线重叠度较高，表明了上涨动能减弱。The small second leg sideway to up from April 6 has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which means a loss of momentum.
- 多头希望市场能重新测试2月份的高点，与去年12月1日和今年2月2日的两波上涨完成 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki]) 的形态，随后市场向上突破并形成一段新的上涨趋势。The bulls want a retest of the February 2 high followed by a breakout and another big leg up, completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2.
- 如果市场将出现更深的回调,买方希望市场会有一次小幅度的二次上涨，至少重新测试4月18日的高点。If there is a deeper pullback, the bulls want a larger second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg high.
- 空头希望：自2022年10月以来的上涨只是在一个 broad bear channel ([wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]) 中形成了一个更大的double top bear flag ([wiki]DTBF[/wiki])（分别在8月16日和2月2日形成） 。The bears see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a larger double top bear flag (Aug 16 and Feb 2) within a broad bear channel.
- 以空头的角度来看：2022年8月份的高点是最重要的阻力位置，只要其尚未被突破，Emini仍处于熊市当中。They determined that the August high is the last major lower high, therefore, believe that the Emini is still in a bear trend.
- 空头希望市场出现 lower high major trend reversal ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki]) 或在double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki])（2月2日）中反转，测试去年10月的低点。They want a retest of the October low from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top (Feb 2).
- 空头预期市场将出现一个wedge top ([wiki]WT[/wiki]) （由12月13日、2月2日形成两腿，第三腿当下正在进行）。与此同时，市场当前的上涨趋势中也形成了一个较小的 wedge（3月22日、4月4日和4月14日）。They also see a larger wedge top forming (Dec 1, Feb 2 and April 18) with a smaller wedge in the current leg up (Mar 22, Apr 4, and Apr 18).
- 然而，空头面对的问题在于自3月13日低点以来的买盘压力较强，阳线多数都是收盘于高位，而阴线（卖方）的力量则明显不足。The problem with the bear’s case is that the buying pressure since March 13 low is stronger with bull bars closing near their highs and bear bars having little follow-through.
- 因此，空头需要推动市场未来形成连续的阴线，并收于低位，使卖盘大于买盘，才能提高市场走势下跌的可能性。They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of lower prices.
- 虽然市场当前的上涨趋势很强，但是它可能只是对2月2日高点的二次测试。While the move up from March 13 low is strong, it could simply be a buy vacuum retest of the February 2 high.
- 当前，市场的上涨趋势中出现了多个不同的 wedge（上升楔形） ，其增加了市场出现回调的概率，而这个回调随时可能开始。The large wedge and smaller wedge in the current leg up increase the odds that we may see a pullback which may begin at any moment. It may have begun this week.
- 目前，市场的回调还比较弱。交易员将关注市场能否形成连续的阴线，并收于低位。So far, the pullback is weak. Traders will see if the bears can create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
- 综上所述，如果空头的力量能够推动市场不断下跌，不断形成低位收盘的阴线，就提高了市场目前的 trading range（范围在3750到4200之内，长达25周） 内出现下跌趋势的概率。If they do, it increases the odds of the bear leg beginning within the 25-week trading range around 3750 and 4200.
- 如果市场回调在接下来的时间内依然较弱，多数K线重叠，并且市场大部分时间处于横盘状态，那么，回调结束后再次上涨的可能性很大。If the pullback remains weak with overlapping bars and trading mostly sideways, the odds of another leg up will increase after the end of the pullback.
- 交易者将在区间突破之前采取BLSH（低买高卖）的策略。Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.