一个Final Flag ([wiki]FF[/wiki])一般需要满足以下几个基本要素：
- 一个比较清晰的趋势（Trend）
- 一个常常呈水平方向的回调（不同于楔形回调），有时它可以简短得只有一根K线 (在高一些时间框架下其实就是[wiki]II[/wiki]) (Pullback that is usually mostly horizontal. It can be as brief as a single bar) (On [wiki]HTF[/wiki], it actually is an II pattern)
- 当前的趋势比较接近某个磁力位（上升趋势中的阻力，下跌趋势中的支撑）(Trend is typically close to a magnet (resistance in a bull, support in a bear))
- 一些其他反转迹象（比如在上涨趋势中，在通道顶部附近卖压开始积累、变强）(There are likely other signs of a possible reversal (in a bull, examples include building selling pressure near the top of a channel))
Final flag指的是在某个特定情况下，一个反转以一种“顺势的形式”作为其反转过程的开始，此“顺势的形式”从现有的趋势的方向看是一个顺势的牛旗或者熊旗，但当反转成功后回头看，此牛旗或者熊旗常被看做最终旗形，因为它是旧趋势彻底结束之前的最后一个牛旗或者熊旗。在交易最终旗型时，交易者认为旧趋势的延续即将失败，他们已经准备好开始进行与旧趋势方向相反的交易。
A final flag is a trend reversal pattern that begins as a continuation pattern. Traders expect the continuation to fail and are ready to take a trade in the opposite direction.
与所有的反转交易一样，最终旗形反转后走出一个成功的Swing的概率通常只有40%左右，对此我的基本原则是[wiki]TBTL[/wiki]，也就是说一个成功的波段至少有“10根棒两条腿” 。同时，一个Swing也意味着回报至少是风险的两倍 (这是我对一个成功的波段交易的最低标准）。
Like all trend reversals, the probability of a swing is usually only about 40%. My general goal is 10 bars 2 legs, which means a swing that has at least Ten Bars and Two Legs (TBTL). A swing also means a reward that is at least twice as large as the risk (my minimum criterion for a successful swing).
一般情况下，做波段交易60%的结果都是小幅盈利或小幅亏损，它们之间会相互抵消。追求高成功概率的交易者通常会等待在反转方向出现一个强劲的突破，那时，这个波段交易的成功概率通常为60%或更高，但止损位也会因为已经发生的突破被拉得很远，因此也就意味着更大的风险，但这是这种类型的交易者为了更高的成功率所必须付出的代价。因为机构是市场上的主要参与者，我们的任何一个卖出或者买入交易，都必须有机构在另外一边相应买入或者卖出，如果一个你想获得更高的成功率，你就必须接受更差的盈亏比（我们必须默认机构和我们同样聪明）。
Sixty percent of the trades result in small wins and losses that usually balance each other out. Traders who want a higher probability usually will wait for the reversal to have a strong breakout in the new direction. At that point, the probability of a swing trade is often 60% or more, but the stop is far away. That increase in risk is the trade-off. There always has to be something in the trade for the institution taking the other side of your trade. If you get great probability, you pay for it with bad risk/reward (reduced reward relative to risk).
讨 论
- 问：这里的最终旗型会不会是更类似[wiki]MTR[/wiki]的一种？我记得每次Al提到MTR的成功率都是40%，然后Al一般只会说scalp，swing，还有minimum scalp size，而文中的波段交易属于哪一种？答：最终旗型Final Flag其实是MTR Setup的一种，相对来说，“标准的”MTR属于比较“正常”的或者“典型”的反转形态，比较强调首次反转尝试有足够的力度，虽然其常常在EMA附近失败，但却为后面的成功第二次反转打下基础。相对于典型的MTR反转，Final Flag反转有更多的Vaccum Test的意味，以Final bear flag为例，在呈水平方向的回调出现时，多空双方力量实际上已经接近均衡状态，当后面的Bear breakout出现时，无论是尚未离场的Swing bears还是刚刚short的Scalping bears都开始选择止盈，此时对这个Final flag比较有信心的多方也开始买入，从而造成了一种真空效应，这种真空效应，也往往发生在[wiki]MSR[/wiki]附近。
个人一直觉得这个final flag的概念意义不大，只是站在事后回看之前k线图的一种走势分类。走势是整理和运行的复杂组合，行情在整理后沿着原交易级别的趋势方向突破，试问满足什么条件以及何时才能确认刚刚突破的整理形态会成为最终旗形？
Take a look at ninetrans’ article here https://ninetrans.blogspot.com/2011/10/final-flags.html, he actually summarized pretty well, what makes a FF special is that “it is a horizontal flag made of overlapping trend bars“, there are two keywords here, 1) horizontal, 2) overlapping trend bars, without these, I myself wouldn’t call it a FF, even though Al has a very broad collection of different variations of FF.
Behind the scene of FF, above ninetrans article pointed out a good point: “A normal flag moves counter to the direction of the existing trend and represents early traders exiting, counter-trend traders being trapped in and new traders moving in, taking the price to a new extreme. A horizontal flag on the other hand does not represent the early traders exiting.”
所以学Al的东西需要注意的一点是，也许他是为了能够更全面地阐述一个setup，他会用很多例子讲述各种final flag的变种，也就意味着他会用一些不够classic的setup来讲，这些不够典型的变种容易造成读者失去重点，结果就是在很多并不够好的机会时失去耐心错误入场。