【Emini周报 05-07-2023】

S&P 500 Emini期货在20周EMA附近形成了一个 double bottom ([wiki]DB[/wiki])。目前，市场呈盘整走势，下跌趋势尚未明确。多头一直鼓足力量希望市场价格能够强势突破2月2日的高点，并以过去5个月 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 的 measured move ([wiki]MM[/wiki]) 为目标，而空头则希望市场从2月2日的高点形成一个 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 和一个更大的 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki])（12月13日、2月2日、5月1日）。

The S&P 500 Emini futures formed an Emini double bottom at the 20-week exponential moving average. So far, the pullback in the Emini has gone sideways. The bears are not yet strong. The bulls want a strong breakout above February 2 high followed by a measured move up using the height of the 5-month trading range. The bears want a reversal down from a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, May 1).

周线 Weekly

• 本周的Emini周线是一个带长下影线阴线，同时还是一个外包K线。This week’s Emini candlestick was an outside bear doji with a long tail below.
• 上周，我们提到： Emini 继续上涨（至少略微上涨）的可能性很大。Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the Emini to trade at least a little higher.
• 本周市场价格在上周的价格区间内上下波动，但最终收盘在区间的上半部分。This week traded above and below last week’s high and low respectively but close in the upper half of the range.
• 多头希望目前的趋势，同时也是第三波上涨，至少能够完成 wedge (W) 形态，前两波上涨分别为上涨至12月13日和2月2日的走势。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
• 多头希望市场最近5周的交易是在靠近 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 高点形成一个 bull flag ([wiki]BLF[/wiki])。They hope the last 5 weeks are forming a bull flag near the trading range high.
• 多头希望市场从一个double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBLF[/wiki])（4月26日和5月4日）得到反转，并再次出现强劲的上涨趋势，将价格远远突破2月2日的高点。They want a reversal up from a double bottom bull flag (Apr 26 and May 4) and want another strong leg up breaking far above February 2 high.
• 多头的下一个目标是2月2日的高点和2022年8月的高点。The next targets for the bulls are the February 2 high and the August 2022 high.
• 多头希望市场能够强势突破这些高点，并以过去5个月 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 的 measured move ([wiki]MM[/wiki]) 为目标，将价格带至2022年3月的高点区域。They want a strong breakout above followed by a measured move up using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
• 空头望市场从2月2日的高点形成一个 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki]) 和一个更大的 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki])（12月13日、2月2日、5月1日）中反转。The bears want a reversal down from a double top with February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, May 1).
• 如果市场继续上涨，他们希望5周 trading range 是上涨趋势的 final flag ([wiki]FF[/wiki]) ，从而反转再次回到 trading range  内。If the Emini trades higher, they hope that the 5-week trading range is the final flag of the move up and want a reversal back into the trading range.
• 然而，空头面对的问题在于自3月低点以来他们一直没有创造出可观的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
• 最近两根周线都具有很长的下影线，收盘价在各自的价格中位以上，可见空头目前还不够强势。The last two candlesticks have long tails below and closed above the middle of their respective ranges. The bears are not yet strong.
• 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，才能让交易者相信市场将出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
• 空头需要市场出现强烈的卖出信号K线才会更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong sell signal bar before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
• 目前为止，市场呈盘整走势，可见空头尚不强劲。So far, the pullback in the Emini has gone sideways. The bears are not yet strong.
• 由于本周周线是一根带有长下影线的空头十字星，且收盘价在本周价格区间的上半部分，这并不是一个强烈的卖出信号K线，反而，它是一个相对较弱的买入信号K线。Since this week was a bear doji closing in the upper half of the week’s range and with a long tail below, it is not a strong sell signal bar. It is a buy signal bar albeit weaker.
• 在一个外包K线后，有时候会形成一个内包线，形成ioi（inside-outside-inside）突破模式，或者经常会有很多陆续重叠的价格行为。The candlestick after an outside bar sometimes is an inside bar forming an ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern, which is a breakout mode pattern. Or often, it has a lot of overlapping price action.
• Emini 在2月2日高点附近形成了一个由5根K线组成的 trading range，而这个区间的形态像一个小的 expanding triangle (ET)。The Emini has formed a 5-bar trading range around the February 2 high which has the shape of a small expanding triangle.
• 目前，市场上涨的可能性仍然略高于下跌，除非空头能够制造出可观的卖压（强劲的空头信号K线并有后续的卖盘）。For now, the odds slightly favor the Emini to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure (strong bear bars with follow-through selling).
• 交易者将观察多头是否能够使市场测试并突破2月份的高点，以便于他们跟随趋势买入，亦或者市场是否在2月2日的高点附近停滞不前。Traders will see if the bulls can create a retest and breakout above the February high with follow-through buying or will the market continue to stall around the February 2 high area.

日线 Daily

• 本周Emini在周一交易时走高，但在周四跌破上周低点。然而周五开高并以一个多头K线收盘，而收盘价也在20日EMA之上。The Emini traded higher on Monday but sold off to below last week’s low by Thursday. Friday gapped up and close above the 20-day exponential moving average as a bull bar with a prominent tail above.
• 我们曾提到，大的 wedge (W)（12月13日、2月2日和4月18日）以及小的 wedge（3月22日、4月4日和4月18日）增加了市场回调的可能性，而这回调可能在两周前已经开始了。Previously, we said that the large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Apr 18) and smaller wedge (Mar 22, Apr 4, and Apr 18) increase the odds that we may see a pullback which likely has begun 2 weeks ago.
• 市场在回调中形成了两个显著的 deep pullback ([wiki]DPB[/wiki]) 下跌趋势，目前围绕20日EMA震荡。The market formed 2 prominent legs down in the pullback with deep pullbacks and is trading sideways around the 20-day exponential moving average.
• 空头并未保持足够的卖盘力量。The bears have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through selling.
• 空头认为从2022年10月以来的上涨只是一个大的wedge（12月13日、2月2日和5月1日），并处于一个 broad bear channel ([wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]) 之中。They see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 1) within a broad bear channel.
• 空头认定2022年8月是上一个主要的低点，认为Emini仍处于下跌趋势之中。They determined that the August high is the last major lower high, therefore, believe that the Emini is still in a bear trend.
• 空头希望市场在一个 lower high major trend reversal ([wiki]LHMTR[/wiki]) 或 double top ([wiki]DT[/wiki])（2月2日）中重新测试2022年10月的低点。They want a retest of the October low from a lower high major trend reversal or a double top (Feb 2).
• 空头看到了一个更小的 wedge 正在形成（4月4日、4月18日和5月1日）。They also see a smaller wedge forming (Apr 4, Apr 18, and May 1).
• 空头希望上周五的下跌只是deep pullback，并希望再下探一波，跌破4月/5月的低点。 The bears hope Friday was simply a deep pullback and wants another leg down breaking far below the April/May lows.
• 如果 Emini 持续上涨，空头头希望过去长达5周的 trading range ([wiki]TR[/wiki]) 是上涨趋势的 final flag ([wiki]FF)[/wiki]，并希望从2月2日高点假突破而反转下跌。If the Emini trades higher, the bears hope that the 5-week trading range is the final flag of the leg up and want a reversal down from a failed breakout above February 2 high.
• 多头希望市场能重新测试2月2日的高点并突破，以过去5个月的 trading range 高度为 measured move ([wiki]MM[/wiki])，把市价带到接近2022年3月的高点。 The bulls want a retest of the February 2 high followed by a breakout and a measured move using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them near the March 2022 high.
• 多头认为当前的回调正在形成 double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBLF[/wiki])（4月26日和5月4日）和 wedge bull flag ([wiki]WBLF[/wiki])（4月6日，4月26日和5月4日）。 他们希望更快地看到从2月2日高点的强劲突破。 They see the current pullback as forming a double bottom bull flag (Apr 26 and May 4) and a wedge bull flag (Apr 6, Apr 26, and May 4). They want a strong breakout above February 2 high soon.
• 由于周五收盘价高于中位并形成大阳线，因此这是周一的买入信号K线。Since Friday was a big bull bar closing in the upper half above, it is a buy signal bar for Monday.
•  Emini 在下周一上涨概率较大。Odds slightly favor the Emini to trade at least a little higher early next week.
• 目前，Emini处于2月2日高点附近的 trading range（4190-4050）。The Emini is forming a smaller trading range of 4190 and 4050 around the February 2 high.
• 交易者将在区间发生突破之前采取BLSH（低买高卖）的策略。Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.

译自：Brooks Trading Course