【阿布！我想问…】我可以跟单赚钱吗？

许多年前，我花费3000美金从一个公司购买了一个交易策略，同时订阅了各种专家的分析频道以及咨询热线，可最后都无疾而终。你一定也在电视上听到过某某”专家”说：“黄金价格要涨”、“原油价格要跌”，或者“股市要涨”等等。你以为你掌握了盈利门路？实际上，你无法从中获利。我经常说：“市场大约有10%的时间处于强劲趋势中，在那种情况下，你只能买进或只能卖出，而剩下90%的时间是盘整状态，在盘整区间里，保持单边行情的看法只会让你亏钱。但如果你正确地管理你的交易，你任何时间买进或卖出都可以获利”。

I remember years ago — I forget the name of the company; maybe it was Essex Trading — I paid them $3,000 for formulas.  I used to subscribe to all kinds of guru newsletters and hotlines, and a lot of it is just a total waste of money, right? If you see some clown on television saying, “Gold is going up,” or “Crude oil is going down,” or “The stock market is going up,” you cannot make money off of that because you hear me say this pretty regularly:  About 10 percent of the time (in strong trends) you can only make money buying or only make money selling.  90 percent of the time (in trading ranges), you can buy or sell at any point and make money, if you manage your trade correctly. 

授人以渔

授人以鱼，不如授人以渔，在交易中也是如此。在你能够完全承担交易中所有责任之前，以交易为生是不现实的。如果你还是一位交易新手，资金也不够大，你很容易就会说：“天哪，我真的很绝望，我必须赚回来，我花了很多时间才存下这笔本金。”在我看来，这种情绪只会让你失去冷静思考的能力，导致恶性循环，让你的交易越来越差。

Teach a man to fish (trade)

You sometimes hear the adage, “You teach a man to fish.  You don’t give him a fish,” and that’s true with trading, right? Until you’re completely comfortable taking full responsibility, it’s really hard to make a living.  And everyone — especially if you’re starting out and your account is not big, it’s easier to say, “Oh my gosh, I am really desperate.  I got to make money doing this.  It took me so much time to save up this money. I don’t want to lose my other job while I start this job”. There’s just a lot of personal issues involved, and I can tell you that I believe it’s extremely difficult to make money, if you have to make money.

欲速则不达

你越急于挣钱，钱就越难挣，因为你觉得再不挣到钱，你的生活就要完了。你会因此更容易犯错，而且你只会担心风险。好的交易需要理智思考三个变量——风险、回报和概率，然而，一个急于赚钱的人只看到了一个变量：风险。如果某笔交易，市场需要一个比当前止损点高五个点的止损点，不理性的交易者会给自己一个心理暗示：“我承受不起损失，出现一点亏损，我就必须退出。”我说的对吗？

Desperate to make money

If you’re really desperate to make money, it’s really hard to make money because you’re going to be miserable. You’re going to make mistakes, and you’re going be only worried about risk, and there are three variables — risk, reward, and probability.  A person who’s desperate to make money only sees one variable:  Risk. “I can’t afford to lose,” right?  One point, two points, “I — I got to get out,” right?  Even though the market might call for a stop that’s five points above.

客观止损

如果一个人只考虑风险，他就会自作聪明的认为：“我知道Al说的止损应该放在哪里，但是我可以在这根K线收盘后买入，确认下一根K线大概率还是上涨的，那样我只需要放置一个很小很小的止损。” 然后你在下一根K线就被止损了。不可否认，你的交易方向是对的，但是你管理不当，你又亏损了，你只能看着市场打掉你的止损后远远离你而去。

Thinking risk only

And if a person’s only thinking about risk, they’re saying, “Well, I know that’s where Al says that’s where the stop goes, but maybe I’ll buy the Bar 17 close and take a chance that it will just go straight up and I’ll put a one-point stop in.” Then you get stopped on Bar 18, and you lost money buying.  You made a really smart trade; you know, you bought the market that’s probably going up, but you managed it wrong because all you saw was risk and you did not want to lose more than a point.

带单会影响我自己交易

回到你刚才的问题，我认为，除非那个带单的老师把他所有的交易细节都告诉你，否则听别人说的做是不可能赚钱的。因为市场瞬息万变，不受任何人的预测所影响，过去的预测往往要随着市场改变而改变。而我做不到这样，因为我每一天都要进行很多笔交易。如果我要在思考如何设止损、收紧止损、刮头皮等决策的时候兼顾讲话，这样只会使我的交易分心，使我的交易变差。

Talking costs money

But going back to your question. I think it’s really impossible to make money listening to somebody else unless they’re saying every little thing that they’re doing. And I — I can’t do it because I take so many trades during the day, and if I’m talking as I’m trying to make a decision about “Do I move the stop here?  Do I get out there?  Do I just get out with just two ticks?  Do I try to hold for two points?” you know, I cannot do both.  It will cost me too much money.

交易并非一成不变

市场瞬息万变，交易也并非一成不变。市场上有一些交易风险小，回报大，同样的，有一些交易初始风险大，但是实际风险小。在第二种交易中，我会使用宽止损，但是我绝对不会让止损触发。这类交易的优点在于：就实际风险而言，其实际风险很小，而回报很大。不知道我这样是否解除了你心中的疑惑，但是我真的认为：通过祈求上天来保证我们永不亏钱是不现实的。如果你已经学会了我教学的策略，你就要去实践，你需要积累经验，才能培养出属于自己的信心，而这些东西，不通过自己努力，仅仅靠依赖别人，是永远得不到的。

Small risk, big reward

Sometimes I’ll take finesse trades where there’s some unusual situation where the risk is really not all that big and the reward is big. Or the actual risk is not big, the initial risk is big. I’m using a wide stop, but I’m never going to let the stop be hit.  In terms of actual risk, the actual risk is small and the reward is big. So I don’t know.  I hope I’m answering your question, but I really think looking for a God or savior to protect you, so that you don’t lose money is not going do it. That’s not what you need.  What you need is practice and you got to get a lot of trades under your belt before you start feeling comfortable that you can do this. And depending on someone else to hold your hand as you do it, that’s just not going to work.

山不辞土，故能成其高；海不辞水，故能成其深

我曾经请过一位交易员做我的老师，现在我偶尔还会在电视上看到他，他完全就是一个骗子。在25年前，我花了3000美元请他来教我一天，我还记得那天他就坐在我旁边，而我却亏了3000美元。我花3000美元请他做我的老师，却让我亏了3000美元。我质问他：“你现在和我在一起，看着我亏损，自己却不交易，你每天都在外面教学吗？你自己交易多久？”他回答我：他从来没有交易过。他教别人如何交易，自己却不做交易，真是个骗子。我记得我当时非常绝望，我愿意付出任何代价请任何人教我如何做交易。那天他教了我几个技巧，但是那远远不够，因为这一点技巧很可能第二天就不适用了，只有不断学习才能一直在市场上活下去。

Not just about setups

I remember I once hired a tutor. The guy, I still see him out there, every now and then, at the shows.  I think he’s a total fraud, but he’s still out there and 25 years ago I paid him, like, $3,000 to come in for the day. And I lost $3,000 with him sitting by my side that day.  So I paid him $3,000, I lost $3,000.  And I started pressing him, “You’re here with me.  You’re not trading.  How many days do you go out and teach?  How many days do you trade?”  Anyway, what it came down to was he says he never trades, and so here he is teaching people how to trade and he’s not a trader.  The guy, he was a fraud.  The guy’s a fraud.  He’s not in the game. I was desperate, willing to pay anything to get somebody to show me how to do it. But even if he showed me one or two things that day, that still would not have been enough because those two things would not be there tomorrow, or the next day, or the next day.  There’s a lot more to a trade than just setups.

严谨的计划是盈利的前提

我经常说： “大多数情况下，只要你使用正确的止损和止盈，无论做空还是做多你都可以赚钱。当市场处于盘整区间时，其更加显而易见的。”你可以在任何K线下方做多，任何K线上方做空，永远做刮头皮。只要你懂得这样做，就不需要听别人告诉你在哪里做多、在哪里做空。

Use correct stop and targets

In fact, you hear me regularly say — most of the time, if you use a correct stop and a profit target, you can make money buying or selling.  It’s obvious when the market is like this, right?  You can buy or sell. You can buy below anything, sell above anything, and just keep scalping. But most of the time you can do that so you don’t need someone to say, “Oh Al, buy this,” or “Al, Al, sell that.” 

交易真的很简单！

交易并不像想象中那么复杂。如果我告诉你止损点在某个位置，而你认为这个位置风险太大，你就不要做这笔交易，但如果你决定要做，就一定要设置好止损点。只要你能认真制定交易计划、设定正确的止损点，你就有可能赚到钱。交易永远需要你承担一定的风险，但请不要让风险大于你的收益。当你的交易有一天不再害怕止损后，交易对你来说会简单许多。

Trading is easy, really!

Trading is really not that complicated and I think traders learn — if you just listen to me during the day, I’m telling you the stop goes here, and you say, “Well, I don’t want to risk that much.”  Well, don’t take the trade, but if you’re going to take the trade, that’s where the stop goes.  And if at the end of the day you sit down and listen to what I’m saying, you’ll say, “Hey, wait a minute, what Al said made sense.  You know, if I did buy there and if I did put that stop there or if I did sell there and I did put that stop there, I would have made money.”  I have to risk more than I wanted to risk, but I would have made money.  So if you can trade small enough, you can do it.  It’s much easier to make money if you can trade small, and use the correct stops, and not worry about losing.