【Emini周报 05-21-2023】

本周，标普500 Emini期货的多头突破了[wiki]ioi[/wiki]（内外内）形态。他们需要在下周创造出持续性的买盘，将价格大幅突破2月2日的高点，以增加进一步上涨的可能性。而空头则希望价格在未能突破2月2日高点并形成更大的wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和5月19日）后出现逆转下跌。

The S&P 500 Emini futures bulls got a breakout above ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern this week. They need to create follow-through buying next week breaking far above the February 2 high to increase the odds of higher prices. The bears want a reversal down from a failed breakout above the February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 19).

周线 Weekly

•  本周的Emini K线图是一个大阳线，且上方有明显的上影线。This week’s Emini candlestick was a big bull bar with a noticeable tail above.
• 上周我们说过，只有在空头能够形成可信的卖压之前，市场仍然有望保持在横盘上涨的阶段。Last week, we said that the odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure.
• 本周突破了[wiki]ioi[/wiki]（内外内）形态和为期6周的 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）。收盘价高于5月1日的高点，但低于2月2日的高点。This week broke above the ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern and the 6-week tight trading range. It closed above May 1 high but below the February 2 high.
• 多头希望能够再一波强劲的上涨，完成 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）的第三个腿，前两个腿分别是12月13日和2月2日。第三个腿目前正在进行中。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
• 他们希望前6根K线在 trading range （[wiki]TR[/wiki]）高点周围形成一个bull flag（[wiki]BLF[/wiki]）。They hope the prior 6 candlesticks formed a bull flag around the trading range high.
• 他们希望价格从 double bottom bull flag（[wiki]DBBLF[/wiki]）（4月26日和5月4日）逆转上涨，并突破2月2日的高点，随后以5个月 trading range 的高度等距测量上涨，将其推至2022年3月高点附近。They want a reversal up from a double bottom bull flag (Apr 26 and May 4) and a breakout far above February 2 high followed by a measured move up using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
• 由于本周突破了ioi 形态和为期6周的 tight trading range，多头将需要在下周创造出一根跟随阳线，以增加进一步上涨的可能性。Since this week was a breakout above the ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern and the 6-week tight trading range, the bulls will need to create a follow-through bull bar next week to increase the odds of higher prices.
• 多头的下一个目标是2022年八月的高点。The next target for the bulls is the August 2022 high.
• 空头希望价格从未能突破2月2日高点和更大的wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和5月19日）逆转下跌。The bears want a reversal down from a failed breakout above the February 2 high and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 19).
• 他们希望6周的 tight trading range 只是上涨走势的 final flag（[wiki]FF[/wiki]），并希望价格逆转回到 trading range 的中部。They hope that the 6-week tight trading range is the final flag of the move up and want a reversal back into the middle of the trading range.
• 空头的问题在于自3月低点以来他们并未显现出强劲的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
• 他们需要使市场出现几个强劲的空头K线以及强劲的卖压跟随来向交易者证明市场可能会出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
• 至少，空头需要使市场一个强劲的卖出信号K线才会让交易者愿意更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
• Emini 在四月和五月的回调走势保持横盘，空头尚未变得强势。The pullback in April and May went sideways. The bears are not yet strong.
• 由于本周的K线是收盘于上半部分的阳线，它是下周的买入信号。它并不是一个强烈的卖出信号。Since this week was a bull bar closing in the upper half, it is a buy signal bar for next week. It is not a strong sell signal bar.
• 然而，市场正在围绕着这一整年的 trading range 高点震荡。在确认突破并有跟随买盘之前，盲目在 trading range 顶部买入并不是一个理想的建仓型态。However, the market is trading around the yearlong trading range high. Buying at the top of a trading range (before a confirmed breakout with follow-through buying) is not an ideal setup.
• 目前，市场仍倾向横盘并上涨，除非空头能够创造有力的卖压（连续的大光脚阴线）。For now, odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure (consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows).
• 交易者将观察多头是否能够创造出一根跟随阳线并收盘远高于2月2日的高点，或者Emini是否会稍微上涨，但收盘时出现长上影线或形成阴线。Traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing far above the February 2 high or will the Emini trade slightly higher but close with a long tail above or a bear body.

日线 Daily

• 本周早些时候，Emini继续保持横盘，随后在周四突破了为期6周的 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）。周五市场上涨，但逆转回落，形成了一个具有明显上下影线的十字星阴线。The Emini continued sideways early in the week followed by a breakout above the 6-week tight trading range on Thursday. Friday traded higher but reversed to close as a small bear doji with prominent tails.
• 上周我们说过，只要空头无法形成强烈的连续空头阳线，市场仍然稍微有利于保持在横盘上涨的阶段。Last week, we said that the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create strong consecutive bear bars.
• 多头突破了2月2日的高点，但在周五没有跟随买盘。The bulls got a breakout above February 2 high but did not follow-through buying on Friday.
• 他们认为最近的横盘回调形成了一个 double bottom bull flag（[wiki]DBBLF[/wiki]）（4月26日和5月4日）和一个wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（4月6日、4月26日和5月4日）。They see the recent sideways pullback as forming a double-bottom bull flag (Apr 26 and May 4) and a wedge bull flag (Apr 6, Apr 26, and May 4).
• 他们希望市场能够强劲上涨，并以5个月trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）的高度等距测量上涨，将其推至2022年3月的高点附近。They want a strong leg up and a measured move using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them near the March 2022 high.
• 多头需要突破2月2日的高点并有跟随买盘，才可以增加进一步上涨的可能性。The bulls will need to break far above the February 2 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of higher prices.
• 自4月18日以来，市场在20日EMA周围形成了两个明显的下跌腿（横盘回调）。Since April 18, the market formed 2 prominent legs down (a sideways pullback) around the 20-day exponential moving average.
• 空头尚未能够使市场转为下跌趋势。The bears have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through selling.
• 空头认为从2022年10月开始的上涨趋势只是一个下跌通道中的大楔形（12月13日，2月2日和5月1日）。They see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 19) within a broad bear channel.
• 空头希望6周的 tight trading range （[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）只是上涨走势的 final flag（[wiki]FF[/wiki]）。The bears hope that the 6-week tight trading range is the final flag of the move up.
• 他们希望价格未能突破2月2日的高点，并回落到 trading range 的中部。They want a failed breakout above the February 2 high and the market to trade back into the middle of the trading range.
• 他们需要一个强烈的反转K线或一个 micro double top（[wiki]MDT[/wiki]），才会愿意更积极地做空。They need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
• 由于周五形成了一个带有明显上下影线的十字星阴线，它并不是周一的强烈卖出信号。Since Friday was a small bear doji with prominent tails, it is not a strong sell signal bar for Monday.
• 日线图出现了两根强劲阳线从 tight trading range 突破（5月8日至5月16日），所以第一次的回调可能只是轻微回调。It also followed 2 strong bull bars breaking out from a tight trading range (May 8 to May 16). The first pullback may only be minor.
• 目前，只要空头无法形成强烈的阴线，市场仍然稍微有利于保持在横盘上涨的阶段。For now, the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create strong bear bars.
• 交易员将观察多头是否能够持续突破2月2日的高点，或者市场是否会稍微上涨但在 trading range 高点附近失败。Traders will see if the bulls can create a sustained breakout above February 2 high or will the market trade slightly higher but fail around the trading range high.

译自：Brooks Trading Course