标普500 Emini期货上周出现了[wiki]ioi[/wiki]（内外内）突破后延续走势。然而，多头方尚未能够突破2月2日的高点。在确认突破和跟随买盘之前，于trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）的顶部买入并不是一个理想的设置。空头方希望从 higher high major trend reversal（[wiki]HHMTR[/wiki]）以及一个更大的wedge（W）（12月13日、2月2日和5月19日）中得到逆转。
The S&P 500 Emini futures follow through after ioi (inside-outside-inside) breakout pattern last week. However, the bulls have not yet been able to break above the February 2 high. Buying at the top of a trading range (before a confirmed breakout with follow-through buying) is not an ideal setup. The bears want a reversal down from a higher high major trend reversal and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 19).
周线 Weekly
- 本周的Emini K线图形成了一个光脚阳线。This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull doji closing near its high with a long tail below.
- 上周我们说过，在空头能够形成可信的卖压之前，市场仍然有望保持在横盘上涨的阶段。Last week, we said that the odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase, until the bears can create credible selling pressure.
- 本周交易低于上周的低点，但随后反转并且收盘接近本周的高点。This week traded below last week’s low but reversed to close near the week’s high.
- 多头方希望出现另一个强劲上升趋势而形成 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]），前两个腿分别分是12月13日和2月2日。第三个腿目前正在进行中。The bulls want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 他们希望最近六周的 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）形成一个接近 trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）高点的 bull flag（[wiki]BLF[/wiki]）。They hope that the recent 6-week tight trading range formed a bull flag around the trading range high.
- 他们希望价格从 double bottom bull flag（[wiki]DBBLF[/wiki]）（5月4日和5月24日）逆转上涨，并突破2月2日的高点，随后以5个月 trading range 的高度等距测量上涨，将其推至2022年3月高点附近。They want another leg up from a double bottom bull flag (May 4 and May 24) and a breakout far above February 2 high followed by a measured move up using the height of the 5-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
- 由于本周形成了一个十字星阳线，它是继上周突破 [wiki]ioi[/wiki]（内外内）和六周 tight trading range（TTR）之后的一个跟随K线。Since this week was a bull doji, it is a follow-through bar following last week’s breakout above the ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern and the 6-week tight trading range.
- 多头方需要远超过2月2日的高点，以增加价格上涨的可能性。The bulls need to break far above the February 2 high to increase the odds of higher prices.
- 多头方的下一个目标是2022年8月的高点。The next target for the bulls is the August 2022 high.
- 空头方希望从 higher high major trend reversal（[wiki]HHMTR[/wiki]）以及一个更大的 wedge（12月13日、2月2日和5月19日）中得到逆转。The bears want a reversal down from a higher high major trend reversal and a larger wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 19).
- 他们希望这六周的 tight trading range 是上涨趋势的 final flag（[wiki]FF[/wiki]），并希望逆转回到六个月 trading range 的中间位置。They hope that the 6-week tight trading range is the final flag of the move up and want a reversal back into the middle of the 6-month trading range.
- 空头的问题在于自3月低点以来他们并未显现出强劲的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
- 他们需要使市场出现几个强劲的空头K线以及强劲的卖压跟随来向交易者证明市场可能会出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
- 至少，空头需要使市场一个强劲的卖出信号K线或者 micro double top（[wiki]MDT[/wiki]）才会让他们愿意更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 由于本周形成了一个光脚阳线，它是下周的买入信号，而不是一个强烈的卖出信号。Since this week was a bull doji closing near its high and a long tail below, it is a buy signal bar for next week. It is not a strong sell signal bar.
- 然而，市场正在围绕着这一整年的 trading range 高点震荡。在确认突破并有跟随买盘之前，盲目在 trading range 顶部买入并不是一个理想的建仓型态。However, the market is trading around the yearlong trading range high. Buying at the top of a trading range (before a confirmed breakout with follow-through buying) is not an ideal setup.
- 目前，市场仍倾向横盘并上涨，除非空头能够创造有力的卖压（连续的大光脚阴线）For now, odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure (consecutive big bear bars closing near their lows).
- 交易者将观察多头是否能够创造出一根跟随阳线并收盘远高于2月2日的高点，或者Emini是否会稍微上涨，但收盘时出现长上影线或形成阴线。Traders will see if the bulls can create a breakout far above the February 2 high or will the Emini trade slightly higher but close with a long tail above or a bear body.
- 周一是公共假日（阵亡将士纪念日）。Monday is a public holiday (Memorial Day).
日线 Daily
- 本周早些时候，Emini下跌并测试了六周 trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）中间的位置。随后市场在周四略微上涨，紧接着在周五出现强劲的反弹。The Emini traded lower earlier in the week, testing the middle of the 6-week trading range. The market then traded slightly higher on Thursday followed by a strong rally on Friday.
- 上周我们说过，在空头方能够形成强劲的阴线之前，市场更有可能仍然持续处于横盘上涨的阶段。Last week, we said that the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create strong bear bars.
- 多头认为最近的横盘回调形成了一个 double bottom bull flag（[wiki]DBBLF[/wiki]）（4月26日和5月4日）和一个wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（4月6日、4月26日和5月4日）。The bulls see the recent sideways pullback as forming a double-bottom bull flag (Apr 26 and May 4) and a wedge bull flag (Apr 6, Apr 26, and May 4).
- 他们希望突破2月2日的高点，随后以六个月 trading range 的高度等距测量上涨，将价格推向接近2022年3月的高点。They want a breakout above February 2 high followed by a measured move using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them near the March 2022 high.
- 多方需要远超过2月2日的高点并有跟随买盘，以增加价格上涨的可能性。The bulls will need to break far above the February 2 high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of higher prices.
- 自4月18日以来，市场在20日EMA周围形成了两个明显的下跌腿（横盘回调）。Since April 18, the market formed 2 prominent legs down (a sideways pullback) around the 20-day exponential moving average.
- 空头尚未能使市场持续出现跟随卖盘。本周早些时候（周一和周二）依然如此。The bears have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through selling. That was the case again earlier this week (Monday & Tuesday).
- 他们认为从2022年10月开始的上涨仅仅是在一个 broad bear channel（[wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]）形成了一个大的 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和5月19日）。They see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and May 19) within a broad bear channel.
- 空头希望最近六周的 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）是上涨趋势的 final flag（[wiki]FF[/wiki]）。The bears hope that the recent 6-week tight trading range is the final flag of the move up.
- 如果Emini继续上涨，他们希望突破2月2日的高点失败，并且市场重新回到六个月 trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）中间的位置。If the Emini trades higher, they want a failed breakout above the February 2 high and the market to trade back into the middle of the 6-month trading range.
- 他们希望市场从 expanding triangle（[wiki]ET[/wiki]）的顶部反转下跌。They want a reversal down from the top of the expanding triangle.
- 他们需要一个强烈的反转K线或 micro double top（[wiki]MDT[/wiki]），然后才会更积极地做多。They need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 由于上周五是一个大阳线，它是下周二的买入信号K线。Since Friday was a big bull bar, it is a buy signal bar for next Tuesday.
- 然而，在确认突破之前，在 trading range 和 expanding triangle 的顶部买入并不是一个理想的建仓形态。However, buying at the top of a trading range and an expanding triangle before a confirmed breakout is not an ideal buy setup.
- 目前来看，在空头能够形成强劲的阴线之前，市场仍然有望保持在横盘上涨的阶段。For now, the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create strong bear bars.
- 交易者将观察多头是否能够突破2月2日的高点，或者市场是否会略微上涨但在 trading range 高点附近失败。Traders will see if the bulls can create a breakout above February 2 high or will the market trade slightly higher but fail around the trading range high.
- 如果多头方在几周内多次未能突破六个月 trading range，市场很可能会往相反的方向走，也就是说可能导致更深的回调。If the bulls repeatedly fail to break higher above the 6-month trading range within a few weeks, the market will then likely do the opposite which would likely lead to a deeper pullback.
又回到了交易区间顶部。再这样下去，我们很快成为交易区间的高手了。