标普500 Emini期货本周周线形成了十字星阳线，这意味着在上周突破2月2日的高点后，多头保持了跟随买盘。多头的下一个目标是8月份的高点。空头则希望看到市场突破2月2日高点的失败并从wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和6月2日）和8月高点所形成的double top（[wiki]DT[/wiki]）中反转下跌。
The S&P 500 Emini futures weekly candlestick was a bull doji therefore the bulls got buying follow-through following last week’s breakout above the February 2 high. The bull’s next target is the August high. The bears want a failed breakout above the February 2 high and a reversal down from a wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 9) and a double top with the August high.
周线 Weekly
- 本周的标普500 Emini期货周线形成了十字星阳线，收盘略高于本周区间的中部和上周的高点。This week’s Emini candlestick was a bull doji closing slightly above the middle of the week’s range and above last week’s high.
- 上周我们提到过，市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，除非空头能够制造出可观的卖压（强劲的空头信号K线并有后续的卖盘）。Last week, we said that odds continue to favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create credible selling pressure.
- 随着上周突破了2月2日的高点，多头在本周保持了跟随买盘（尽管较为疲弱）。The bulls got buying follow-through bar (albeit weaker) following last week’s breakout above the February 2 high.
- 多头希望市场能够进一步上涨，完成 wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）的形态，其中前两波上涨阶段分别是12月13日和2月2日。而第三波上涨正是当下。They want another strong leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 市场突破了为期6周的tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]），而这个 tight trading range 变成了上涨趋势中的一个 bull flag（[wiki]BLF[/wiki]）。They got a breakout from the 6-week tight trading range which turned into a bull flag.
- 多头希望市场能够远离2月2日的高点，然后他们将以过去6个月 trading range 的高度等距看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。They want a breakout far above February 2 high followed by a measured move using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
- 多头的下一个目标是2022年8月的高点。The next target for the bulls is the August 2022 high.
- 空头希望市场从wedge（12月13日、2月2日和6月2日）和8月高点所形成的double top（[wiki]DT[/wiki]）中反转下跌。The bears want a reversal down from a wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 9) and a double top with the August high.
- 空头希望这6周的 tight trading range是上涨趋势中的 final flag （[wiki]FF[/wiki]），并希望市场从2月2日高点的突破会失败。They hope that the 6-week tight trading range is the final flag of the leg up and want a failed breakout above the February 2 high.
- 如果市场这是个假突破，通常会在突破之后的5个周期内发生。If there is a failed breakout, it would usually occur within 5 bars after the breakout.
- 空头面对的问题在于自3月低点以来他们一直没有创造出可观的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure since the March low.
- 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，才能让交易者相信市场将出现更深的回调。They will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
- 空头需要市场出现强劲的卖出信号K线才会更积极地做空。At the very least, the bears will need a strong reversal bar or a micro double top before they would be willing to sell more aggressively.
- 因为本周的周线是一个十字星阳线，所以对于下周而言，它是一个稍弱的买入信号，而不是一个强烈的卖出信号。Since this week was a bull doji, it is a weaker buy signal bar for next week. It is not a strong sell signal bar.
- 尽管市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，但任何时刻都将会有微小的回调。While the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase, a minor pullback can begin at any moment.
- 交易员将观察多头是否能够保持买盘力量的跟进，又或者说，Emini将会在目前的价位停滞并开始进入回调阶段。Traders will see if the bulls can continue creating consecutive bull bars or will the Emini stall around the current levels and begin the pullback phase.
日线 Daily
- 本周大部分时间内Emini 都是横盘交易，但在周五突破上涨，并以一个十字星收盘。The Emini was trading sideways throughout most of the week but broke higher on Friday, closing as a doji bar.
- 之前我们提到过，市场上涨的可能性仍然高于下跌的可能性，除非空头能够制造出可观的卖压。Previously, we said that the odds continue to slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase until the bears can create strong bear bars.
- 多头在上周突破2月2日的高点后得到了买盘跟随。The bulls got some follow-through buying following last week’s break above the February 2 high.
- 多头希望市场以过去6个月的trading range（[wiki]TR[/wiki]）的高度来等距测量，将目标设定在接近2022年3月的高点附近。They want a measured move up using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them near the March 2022 high.
- 多头需要市场突破远超8月份的高点并保持买盘跟随，以增加达到等距测量目标的可能性。They will need to break far above the August high with follow-through buying to increase the odds of reaching the measured move target.
- 空头尚未能够形成持续性的卖盘力量。The bears have not yet been able to create sustained follow-through selling.
- 他们认为从2022年10月开始的上涨只是在一个 broad bear channel（[wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]）中的一个大wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和6月9日）。They see the move up from October 2022 simply as forming a large wedge (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 9) within a broad bear channel.
- 他们希望本周的 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）（周一至周四）是当前上涨趋势中的一个小 final flag（[wiki]FF[/wiki]）。They hope that the tight trading range this week (Monday to Thursday) formed a smaller final flag in the current leg up.
- 他们也认为一个较小的wedge（5月30日、6月5日和6月9日）正在形成。They see a smaller wedge (May 30, Jun 5, and Jun 9) forming too.
- 如果Emini继续上涨，他们希望市场在趋势通道线附近停滞。If the Emini trades higher, they want the market to stall around the trend channel line.
- 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，以增加更深回调的可能性。The bears will need to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to increase the odds of a deeper pullback.
- 由于周五出现了一个十字星阴线，对于周一来说是一个中性的信号K线。Since Friday was a bear doji bar, it is a neutral signal bar for Monday.
- 到目前为止，市场突破2月2日高点后有很多重叠的K线，所以这突破并不像多头所希望的那样强劲。The breakout above the February 2 high so far has a lot of overlapping candlesticks. It’s not as strong as the bulls hope it would be.
- 由于缺乏强劲阴线，市场仍然偏向于横盘或上涨。Because of the lack of strong bear bars with follow-through selling, odds continue to slightly favor sideways to up.
- 如果下周空头能够创造出可观的卖压（强劲的空头信号K线并有后续的卖盘），这局势可能会因而发生变化。This can change if the bears manage to create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows (bear spike) next week.
- 如果出现回调，一个合理的目标可能是突破点（2月2日高点）或20日EMA区域。If there is a pullback, a reasonable target would be the breakout point (February 2 high) or the 20-day exponential moving average area.
- 交易者认为至少会有一个小幅上涨来重新测试当前上涨趋势的最高点（6月9日）。Traders will still expect at least a small leg to retest the current leg extreme high (Jun 9).
目前多头在日线的突破缺口还未被填补，对多头是个好事。