标普500 Emini期货的月线图出现了一根大阳线，收盘价超过了8月的高点，多头需要在7月保持力量确认市场突破，而空头则希望看到市场突破8月高点失败，并从double top bear flag（[wiki]DTBRF[/wiki]）（8月）和趋势通道线的超买区域开始反转。
The S&P 500 Emini futures monthly candlestick was a big bull bar closing above August high. The bulls need to create a follow-through bull bar in July to confirm the breakout. The bears want a failed breakout above the August high and a reversal down from a double top bear flag (August) and a trend channel line overshoot.
Monthly 月线
- 六月的标普500 Emini期货是一根光头阳线。The June monthly Emini candlestick was a big bull bar closing near its high.
- 上个月，我们说过市场在六月初更倾向于横盘上涨的阶段，并且如果六月的K线是一根光头阳线并超过了八月的高点，那将增加市场重返历史最高点的可能性。Last month, we said that odds slightly favor the market to be in the sideways to up phase in the first part of June and if June is a big bull bar closing near its high and above August’s high, it will increase the odds of a retest near the all-time high.
- 六月月线是一根光头阳线并超过了八月的高点。The June candlestick was a big bull bar closing near its high and above the August high.
- 多头保持可观的买盘，使月线收盘价接近高点并超过了20月EMA。The bulls managed to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs and above the 20-month exponential moving average.
- 回顾过去，每当市场连续出现收盘价超过20月EMA的阳线时（三月和四月），后续价格至少会略微上涨。Looking back, whenever the market has consecutive bull bars closing above the 20-month exponential moving average (March & April), it has often led to at least slightly higher prices.
- 目前为止，市场在六月份继续上涨。So far, the market has continued higher in June.
- 自从三月份以来的上涨趋势也处于一个 tight bull channel（[wiki]TBLCH[/wiki]）中，这意味着强势的牛市。The move up since March is also in a tight bull channel. That means strong bulls.
- 多头希望市场从double bottom bull flag ([wiki]DBBLF[/wiki])（12月22日和3月13日）开始的上涨趋势，至少能够完成 wedge ([wiki]W[/wiki]) 形态。而第三波上涨正是当下。The bulls want another strong leg up from a double bottom bull flag (Dec 22 and Mar 13), completing the wedge pattern with the first 2 legs being December 13 and February 2 highs. The third leg up is currently underway.
- 多头的下一个目标是使市场测试3月的高点。他们需要在突破8月高点后保持充足的买盘，以增加价格上涨的可能性。TTheThe next target for the bulls is the March 2022 high. They need to create a follow-through bull bar following the breakout above the August high to increase the odds of higher prices.
- 空头将2022年1月以来的下跌视为一个broad bear channel（[wiki]BBRCH[/wiki]）。The bears see the move down from January 2022 as a broad bear channel.
- 他们希望看到突破8月高点失败，并从double top bear flag （[wiki]DTBRF[/wiki]）（8月）和趋势通道线的超买区域开始反转。They want a failed breakout above the August high and a reversal down from a double top bear flag (August) and a trend channel line overshoot.
- 然而，空头面对的问题在于他们一直没能够保持充足的卖盘力量。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create strong selling pressure (bear bars with follow-through selling).
- 由于六月是一根光头阳线，并且星期一是本月的首个交易日，Emini可能在月线、周线和日线图上开高。通常小的跳空很快就会填补。As June is a bull bar closing near its high and Monday is the first trading day of the month, the Emini may gap up on the Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. Small gaps usually close early.
- 目前来看，市场在七月上涨的可能性更大。For now, odds slightly favor July to trade at least a little higher.
- 交易员需要观察买方能否在六月份保持买盘力量，又或者说，Emini将会略微上涨，但是最终成为具有长上影线的阳线或者阴线。Traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar or will the Emini trade slightly higher but close with a bear body or a long tail above.
Weekly 周线
- 本周的标普500 Emini期货是一根外包光头阳线。This week’s Emini candlestick was an outside bull bar closing near its high.
- 上周我们说过，如果回调较弱，重新测试当前上涨的最高价位（6月16日）的可能性将增加。Last week, we said that if the pullback is weak, the odds of a second leg sideways to up to retest the current leg extreme (Jun 16) will increase.
- 第一次突破内包线的成功率为50%。本周标普500 Emini期货突破了内包线的低点，但随后失败并逆转上涨，突破了该内包线的高点。The first breakout from an inside bar can fail 50% of the time. This week broke below the inside bar but failed and reversed to break above it afterwards.
- 市场获得了一个强劲的上涨，形成了 wedge（W），其中前两个腿分别是12月13日和2月2日。The bulls got a strong leg up creating the wedge pattern with the first two legs being December 13 and February 2.
- 自5月24日低点以来的上涨趋势处于一个由4根阳线组成的 microchannel（[wiki]MC[/wiki]）。这意味着多头实力强劲。The move up since May 24 low was in a 5-bar bull microchannel. That means strong bulls.
- 通常会有买家在第一次回调的下方买入，就像本周一样。There would often be buyers below the first pullback as was the case this week.
- 多头希望市场能够远远突破8月高点，并以6个月 tight trading range（[wiki]TTR[/wiki]）的等距测量看涨，希望市场将它们带到2022年3月的高点区域。The bulls want a breakout trading far above the August high followed by a measured move using the height of the 6-month trading range which will take them to the March 2022 high area.
- 本周收盘价高于8月高点。他们需要创造出跟进买盘来确认突破。This week close above the August high. They will need to create a follow-through bull bar to confirm the breakout.
- 空头希望看到市场从wedge（[wiki]W[/wiki]）（12月13日、2月2日和6月30日）、double top bear flag（[wiki]DTBRF[/wiki]）（8月）和 micro double top（[wiki]MDT[/wiki]）（6月16日和6月30日）中反转下跌。The bears want a reversal down from a wedge pattern (Dec 13, Feb 2, and Jun 30), a double top bear flag (August) and a micro double top (Jun 16 and June 30).
- 他们希望看到市场突破8月高点失败。如果形成假突破，通常会在突破后的5根K线内发生。TThey hope to get a failed breakout above the August high. If there is a failed breakout, it would usually occur within 5 bars after the breakout.
- 他们希望市场在突破趋势通道线后出现大幅回调。They want a larger pullback from the trend channel line overshoot.
- 空头面对的问题在于自3月低点以来他们一直没有创造出可观的卖压。The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not been able to create credible selling pressure with follow-through selling since the March low.
- 空头需要制造出强劲的卖压并保持后续的卖盘，才能让交易者相信市场将出现更深的回调。They will need to create consecutive strong bear bars with follow-through selling to convince traders that a deeper pullback could be underway.
- 由于本周是一根光头阳线，它是下周的买入信号柱。Since this week was a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week.
- 下周市场可能会开高。通常小的跳空很快就会填补。The market may gap up next week. Small gaps usually close early.
- 有时，在外包K线之后会是一个内包K线，或者有很多重叠的价格动作。这将形成一个ioi（内包-外包-内包）模式，即突破模式。Sometimes the candlestick after an outside bar is an inside bar or has a lot of overlapping price action. It would then form an ioi (inside-outside-inside) pattern, which is a breakout mode.
- 目前来看，市场仍然处于横盘或上涨的阶段。For now, the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase.
转眼间2023年的一半已经过去了。开始为下半年奋斗！